The death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes prompted the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba as successor in early March, with backing from the Revolutionary Guards and clerical networks. This internal consolidation has left Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the former shah, with minimal institutional leverage inside Iran despite his ongoing calls for regime change during a European tour and appearances at events such as CPAC. Nationwide protests earlier in the year were met with arrests and executions, further limiting space for opposition figures operating from abroad. Traders price the implied probability of Pahlavi assuming leadership by the end of 2026 at roughly 7 percent, reflecting the entrenched position of the current clerical-military structure and the absence of any near-term mechanism for an external transition.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAkankah Reza Pahlavi memimpin Iran pada tahun 2026?
Akankah Reza Pahlavi memimpin Iran pada tahun 2026?
Ya
$1,175,049 Vol.
$1,175,049 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ya
$1,175,049 Vol.
$1,175,049 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes prompted the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba as successor in early March, with backing from the Revolutionary Guards and clerical networks. This internal consolidation has left Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the former shah, with minimal institutional leverage inside Iran despite his ongoing calls for regime change during a European tour and appearances at events such as CPAC. Nationwide protests earlier in the year were met with arrests and executions, further limiting space for opposition figures operating from abroad. Traders price the implied probability of Pahlavi assuming leadership by the end of 2026 at roughly 7 percent, reflecting the entrenched position of the current clerical-military structure and the absence of any near-term mechanism for an external transition.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
Volume
$1,175,049Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes prompted the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba as successor in early March, with backing from the Revolutionary Guards and clerical networks. This internal consolidation has left Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the former shah, with minimal institutional leverage inside Iran despite his ongoing calls for regime change during a European tour and appearances at events such as CPAC. Nationwide protests earlier in the year were met with arrests and executions, further limiting space for opposition figures operating from abroad. Traders price the implied probability of Pahlavi assuming leadership by the end of 2026 at roughly 7 percent, reflecting the entrenched position of the current clerical-military structure and the absence of any near-term mechanism for an external transition.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,175,049Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes prompted the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba as successor in early March, with backing from the Revolutionary Guards and clerical networks. This internal consolidation has left Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the former shah, with minimal institutional leverage inside Iran despite his ongoing calls for regime change during a European tour and appearances at events such as CPAC. Nationwide protests earlier in the year were met with arrests and executions, further limiting space for opposition figures operating from abroad. Traders price the implied probability of Pahlavi assuming leadership by the end of 2026 at roughly 7 percent, reflecting the entrenched position of the current clerical-military structure and the absence of any near-term mechanism for an external transition.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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