Tropical Storm Dolly formed briefly on August 27 but rapidly lost organization due to increasing southerly vertical wind shear, dry air entrainment, and fast forward motion exceeding 20 knots, preventing any intensification beyond minimal tropical-storm strength of 35–40 knots. National Hurricane Center analyses show the system degenerated into an open tropical wave by August 28, with official forecasts projecting continued weakening and dissipation as remnants approach the Leeward Islands. These atmospheric conditions align with the broader quiet 2026 Atlantic season, where no hurricanes have yet formed by late August. Trader consensus at 98.3% against hurricane status reflects this clear data; the primary remaining uncertainty is negligible redevelopment potential over the next week, currently assessed near 10% or lower by ensemble models.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?
Will Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?
2% peluang
BARU
BARU
Sep 3, 2026
2% peluang
BARU
BARU
Sep 3, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Dolly formed briefly on August 27 but rapidly lost organization due to increasing southerly vertical wind shear, dry air entrainment, and fast forward motion exceeding 20 knots, preventing any intensification beyond minimal tropical-storm strength of 35–40 knots. National Hurricane Center analyses show the system degenerated into an open tropical wave by August 28, with official forecasts projecting continued weakening and dissipation as remnants approach the Leeward Islands. These atmospheric conditions align with the broader quiet 2026 Atlantic season, where no hurricanes have yet formed by late August. Trader consensus at 98.3% against hurricane status reflects this clear data; the primary remaining uncertainty is negligible redevelopment potential over the next week, currently assessed near 10% or lower by ensemble models.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Volume
$725Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Dolly formed briefly on August 27 but rapidly lost organization due to increasing southerly vertical wind shear, dry air entrainment, and fast forward motion exceeding 20 knots, preventing any intensification beyond minimal tropical-storm strength of 35–40 knots. National Hurricane Center analyses show the system degenerated into an open tropical wave by August 28, with official forecasts projecting continued weakening and dissipation as remnants approach the Leeward Islands. These atmospheric conditions align with the broader quiet 2026 Atlantic season, where no hurricanes have yet formed by late August. Trader consensus at 98.3% against hurricane status reflects this clear data; the primary remaining uncertainty is negligible redevelopment potential over the next week, currently assessed near 10% or lower by ensemble models.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$725Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Tropical Storm Dolly formed briefly on August 27 but rapidly lost organization due to increasing southerly vertical wind shear, dry air entrainment, and fast forward motion exceeding 20 knots, preventing any intensification beyond minimal tropical-storm strength of 35–40 knots. National Hurricane Center analyses show the system degenerated into an open tropical wave by August 28, with official forecasts projecting continued weakening and dissipation as remnants approach the Leeward Islands. These atmospheric conditions align with the broader quiet 2026 Atlantic season, where no hurricanes have yet formed by late August. Trader consensus at 98.3% against hurricane status reflects this clear data; the primary remaining uncertainty is negligible redevelopment potential over the next week, currently assessed near 10% or lower by ensemble models.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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