**Traders assign an 88% probability that President Trump will not enact a statutory corporate tax rate reduction before 2027 because major tax legislation has already addressed business relief through other channels without lowering the 21% rate.** The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed July 4, 2025, permanently extended key TCJA business provisions such as 100% bonus depreciation, immediate R&D expensing, and the Section 199A pass-through deduction while adding targeted expensing for structures, but it omitted the proposed 15% rate for domestic manufacturing. Corporate tax receipts have fallen sharply—down roughly 30% year-over-year in recent data—largely from accelerated deductions rather than a headline rate cut. With federal deficits and debt elevated, mid-term elections approaching in November 2026, and narrow congressional margins, further reconciliation efforts (sometimes discussed as Reconciliation 3.0) face significant procedural and political hurdles. Senate Republicans have signaled reluctance for additional party-line tax measures this cycle, and no new rate-cut legislation has advanced. These factors anchor the current trader consensus around the existing policy framework holding through 2026.