Recent US military strikes on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb during the 2026 Iran conflict targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard missile and coastal defense positions, underscoring the islands' role in controlling access to the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has retained administrative and military control since 1971 despite longstanding UAE claims, reinforced by fresh IRGC missile deployments and senior command appointments in August 2026 focused on the Hormuz region. Diplomatic pressure from the GCC and UAE continues, with recent accusations of Iranian missile launches prompting Abu Dhabi to suspend trade ties, though Tehran rejects these claims and asserts full sovereignty. No verified transfers of authority or amphibious operations have altered on-the-ground control, leaving trader assessments tied to any future escalation, ceasefire terms, or multilateral negotiations within the market's resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'isola di Abu Musa non è più sotto il controllo iraniano da...?
L'isola di Abu Musa non è più sotto il controllo iraniano da...?
$88,419 Vol.
31 ago 2026
31 agosto
1%
$88,419 Vol.
31 agosto
$81,751 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US military strikes on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb during the 2026 Iran conflict targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard missile and coastal defense positions, underscoring the islands' role in controlling access to the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has retained administrative and military control since 1971 despite longstanding UAE claims, reinforced by fresh IRGC missile deployments and senior command appointments in August 2026 focused on the Hormuz region. Diplomatic pressure from the GCC and UAE continues, with recent accusations of Iranian missile launches prompting Abu Dhabi to suspend trade ties, though Tehran rejects these claims and asserts full sovereignty. No verified transfers of authority or amphibious operations have altered on-the-ground control, leaving trader assessments tied to any future escalation, ceasefire terms, or multilateral negotiations within the market's resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$88,419Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US military strikes on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb during the 2026 Iran conflict targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard missile and coastal defense positions, underscoring the islands' role in controlling access to the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has retained administrative and military control since 1971 despite longstanding UAE claims, reinforced by fresh IRGC missile deployments and senior command appointments in August 2026 focused on the Hormuz region. Diplomatic pressure from the GCC and UAE continues, with recent accusations of Iranian missile launches prompting Abu Dhabi to suspend trade ties, though Tehran rejects these claims and asserts full sovereignty. No verified transfers of authority or amphibious operations have altered on-the-ground control, leaving trader assessments tied to any future escalation, ceasefire terms, or multilateral negotiations within the market's resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$88,419Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US military strikes on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb during the 2026 Iran conflict targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard missile and coastal defense positions, underscoring the islands' role in controlling access to the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has retained administrative and military control since 1971 despite longstanding UAE claims, reinforced by fresh IRGC missile deployments and senior command appointments in August 2026 focused on the Hormuz region. Diplomatic pressure from the GCC and UAE continues, with recent accusations of Iranian missile launches prompting Abu Dhabi to suspend trade ties, though Tehran rejects these claims and asserts full sovereignty. No verified transfers of authority or amphibious operations have altered on-the-ground control, leaving trader assessments tied to any future escalation, ceasefire terms, or multilateral negotiations within the market's resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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