The fragmented field of over two dozen declared or potential candidates for the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial election has kept implied probabilities tightly clustered, with no single contender exceeding 42% in current trader pricing. Recent polling shows early separation among leading municipal officials and party figures, yet internal Morena and opposition coalition processes remain unresolved, limiting any decisive consolidation. Voter preferences in border cities like Tijuana and Mexicali, combined with ongoing party negotiations over nominations, sustain the competitive balance. Scheduled party conventions and updated surveys over the coming months could shift positioning by clarifying frontrunners ahead of the general ballot.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoJorge Ramos Hernández 38%
Gustavo de Hoyos Walther 37%
Joel Anselmo Jiménez Vega 36%
Montserrat Caballero Ramírez 35%

Jorge Ramos Hernández
38%

Gustavo de Hoyos Walther
37%

Joel Anselmo Jiménez Vega
36%

Montserrat Caballero Ramírez
35%

Armando Ayala Robles
30%

Karla Ruiz Macfarland
37%

Fernando Castro Trenti
27%

Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas
26%

Víctor Galicia
24%

Jesús Alejandro Ruiz Uribe
23%

Gustavo Macalpin
22%

Gina Cruz Blackledge
10%

Julieta Ramírez Padilla
9%

Ana Daniela García Salgado
8%

Ismael Burgueño Ruiz
8%

Adrián Humberto Valle Ballesteros
7%

Héctor Osuna Jaime
6%

Guadalupe Gutiérrez Fregoso
6%

Evangelina Moreno Guerra
12%

Daylín García Ruvalcaba
26%

Juan Carlos Hank
38%
Jorge Ramos Hernández 38%
Gustavo de Hoyos Walther 37%
Joel Anselmo Jiménez Vega 36%
Montserrat Caballero Ramírez 35%

Jorge Ramos Hernández
38%

Gustavo de Hoyos Walther
37%

Joel Anselmo Jiménez Vega
36%

Montserrat Caballero Ramírez
35%

Armando Ayala Robles
30%

Karla Ruiz Macfarland
37%

Fernando Castro Trenti
27%

Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas
26%

Víctor Galicia
24%

Jesús Alejandro Ruiz Uribe
23%

Gustavo Macalpin
22%

Gina Cruz Blackledge
10%

Julieta Ramírez Padilla
9%

Ana Daniela García Salgado
8%

Ismael Burgueño Ruiz
8%

Adrián Humberto Valle Ballesteros
7%

Héctor Osuna Jaime
6%

Guadalupe Gutiérrez Fregoso
6%

Evangelina Moreno Guerra
12%

Daylín García Ruvalcaba
26%

Juan Carlos Hank
38%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Mercato aperto: Aug 5, 2026, 7:28 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The fragmented field of over two dozen declared or potential candidates for the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial election has kept implied probabilities tightly clustered, with no single contender exceeding 42% in current trader pricing. Recent polling shows early separation among leading municipal officials and party figures, yet internal Morena and opposition coalition processes remain unresolved, limiting any decisive consolidation. Voter preferences in border cities like Tijuana and Mexicali, combined with ongoing party negotiations over nominations, sustain the competitive balance. Scheduled party conventions and updated surveys over the coming months could shift positioning by clarifying frontrunners ahead of the general ballot.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato



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