**Traders assign a 99.7% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Canada’s September 2, 2026 meeting because the policy rate has remained at 2.25% through six consecutive decisions amid balanced risks.** Recent July communications highlighted an economy showing signs of improvement after earlier weakness, with GDP growth projected to pick up while inflation—elevated near 2.8% in June due to energy prices tied to Middle East developments—is expected to ease toward the 2% target without persistent pass-through. Core measures have softened, labor data have firmed modestly, and the latest Market Participants Survey points to a prolonged hold through year-end. Market-implied odds reflect this data-driven pause, with only minimal pricing for a 25-basis-point move in either direction. A sharper upside surprise in core inflation or a marked deterioration in growth could still shift expectations ahead of the announcement.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNo Change 99.6%
25 bps decrease <1%
25 bps increase <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$46,828 Vol.
$46,828 Vol.
2 set 2026
50+ bps increase
<1%
25 bps increase
<1%
No Change
100%
25 bps decrease
<1%
50+ bps decrease
<1%
No Change 99.6%
25 bps decrease <1%
25 bps increase <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$46,828 Vol.
$46,828 Vol.
2 set 2026
50+ bps increase
$2,754 Vol.
<1%
25 bps increase
$7,366 Vol.
<1%
No Change
$30,425 Vol.
100%
25 bps decrease
$3,578 Vol.
<1%
50+ bps decrease
$2,703 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.**Traders assign a 99.7% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Canada’s September 2, 2026 meeting because the policy rate has remained at 2.25% through six consecutive decisions amid balanced risks.** Recent July communications highlighted an economy showing signs of improvement after earlier weakness, with GDP growth projected to pick up while inflation—elevated near 2.8% in June due to energy prices tied to Middle East developments—is expected to ease toward the 2% target without persistent pass-through. Core measures have softened, labor data have firmed modestly, and the latest Market Participants Survey points to a prolonged hold through year-end. Market-implied odds reflect this data-driven pause, with only minimal pricing for a 25-basis-point move in either direction. A sharper upside surprise in core inflation or a marked deterioration in growth could still shift expectations ahead of the announcement.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jul 2, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Volume
$46,828Data di fine
2 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 2, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.**Traders assign a 99.7% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Canada’s September 2, 2026 meeting because the policy rate has remained at 2.25% through six consecutive decisions amid balanced risks.** Recent July communications highlighted an economy showing signs of improvement after earlier weakness, with GDP growth projected to pick up while inflation—elevated near 2.8% in June due to energy prices tied to Middle East developments—is expected to ease toward the 2% target without persistent pass-through. Core measures have softened, labor data have firmed modestly, and the latest Market Participants Survey points to a prolonged hold through year-end. Market-implied odds reflect this data-driven pause, with only minimal pricing for a 25-basis-point move in either direction. A sharper upside surprise in core inflation or a marked deterioration in growth could still shift expectations ahead of the announcement.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Volume
$46,828Data di fine
2 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 2, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Traders assign a 99.7% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Canada’s September 2, 2026 meeting because the policy rate has remained at 2.25% through six consecutive decisions amid balanced risks.** Recent July communications highlighted an economy showing signs of improvement after earlier weakness, with GDP growth projected to pick up while inflation—elevated near 2.8% in June due to energy prices tied to Middle East developments—is expected to ease toward the 2% target without persistent pass-through. Core measures have softened, labor data have firmed modestly, and the latest Market Participants Survey points to a prolonged hold through year-end. Market-implied odds reflect this data-driven pause, with only minimal pricing for a 25-basis-point move in either direction. A sharper upside surprise in core inflation or a marked deterioration in growth could still shift expectations ahead of the announcement.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
La Banca del Canada non apporterà alcuna modifica all'obiettivo per il tasso overnight nell'annuncio dei tassi di interesse di ottobre?
89%
Sì
Nessuna variazione nei tassi di interesse della Banca del Messico dopo la riunione di settembre 2026?
95%
Sì
La Banca d'Israele manterrà i tassi nell'incontro di agosto 2026?
77%
Sì
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