The Chihuahua gubernatorial contest scheduled for June 2027 remains open, with trader pricing reflecting uncertainty over the Morena-PT-PVEM nominee and the competitiveness of PAN standard-bearer Marco Bonilla Mendoza against the eventual coalition choice. Bonilla, the sitting mayor of Chihuahua capital and recently designated PAN candidate, leads individual probabilities at 39 percent amid polls showing him running close or ahead in some head-to-head scenarios versus Cruz Pérez Cuéllar. Pérez Cuéllar, the Juárez mayor with license seeking the Morena coordination role, holds 23.5 percent while senator Andrea Chávez Treviño sits at 21 percent; both trail in several recent surveys but benefit from Morena’s statewide party advantage of roughly 10–20 points in generic ballot tests. Internal Morena polling and coalition dynamics, including PT and Verde positioning, continue to influence positioning, while factors such as turnout in key urban centers, security perceptions, and any late shifts in national alignment could widen or narrow the field before formal campaigning begins in 2027.