Nayib Bukele's 97% implied probability reflects his party's dominance in the Legislative Assembly, which enacted 2025 constitutional amendments abolishing term limits, extending presidential terms to six years, and advancing the February 28, 2027, election. These changes cleared his path to a third consecutive term after his 2024 re-election. Sustained high approval stems from the ongoing state of emergency, which has produced historically low homicide rates through mass detentions of suspected gang members. The ruling Nuevas Ideas party nominated Bukele unopposed, while declared challengers from ARENA and FMLN register negligible support. Scenarios that could shift odds include major economic setbacks, documented reversals in security gains, significant legal challenges to the reforms, or late health or scandal developments before the vote.