Farsi Island, a small IRGC naval outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under uninterrupted Iranian governmental and military authority amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have focused on degrading Iranian military assets and shipping threats near the Strait of Hormuz, including recent operations on Larak Island and other sites such as Kharg and Qeshm, without establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty over any Iranian territory. Iran continues to enforce primary control through its naval presence and defensive posture, consistent with historical patterns of retaining Gulf islands despite external pressure. Trader-implied probabilities for any near-term loss of control stay minimal, reflecting the distinction between capability degradation and actual territorial shifts. Potential near-term variables include ongoing navigation discussions with Oman and any escalation in maritime enforcement.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'isola di Farsi non è più sotto il controllo iraniano da...?
L'isola di Farsi non è più sotto il controllo iraniano da...?
$198,462 Vol.
30 set 2026
30 settembre
1%
$198,462 Vol.
30 settembre
$21,191 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small IRGC naval outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under uninterrupted Iranian governmental and military authority amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have focused on degrading Iranian military assets and shipping threats near the Strait of Hormuz, including recent operations on Larak Island and other sites such as Kharg and Qeshm, without establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty over any Iranian territory. Iran continues to enforce primary control through its naval presence and defensive posture, consistent with historical patterns of retaining Gulf islands despite external pressure. Trader-implied probabilities for any near-term loss of control stay minimal, reflecting the distinction between capability degradation and actual territorial shifts. Potential near-term variables include ongoing navigation discussions with Oman and any escalation in maritime enforcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$198,462Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small IRGC naval outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under uninterrupted Iranian governmental and military authority amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have focused on degrading Iranian military assets and shipping threats near the Strait of Hormuz, including recent operations on Larak Island and other sites such as Kharg and Qeshm, without establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty over any Iranian territory. Iran continues to enforce primary control through its naval presence and defensive posture, consistent with historical patterns of retaining Gulf islands despite external pressure. Trader-implied probabilities for any near-term loss of control stay minimal, reflecting the distinction between capability degradation and actual territorial shifts. Potential near-term variables include ongoing navigation discussions with Oman and any escalation in maritime enforcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$198,462Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Farsi Island, a small IRGC naval outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under uninterrupted Iranian governmental and military authority amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have focused on degrading Iranian military assets and shipping threats near the Strait of Hormuz, including recent operations on Larak Island and other sites such as Kharg and Qeshm, without establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty over any Iranian territory. Iran continues to enforce primary control through its naval presence and defensive posture, consistent with historical patterns of retaining Gulf islands despite external pressure. Trader-implied probabilities for any near-term loss of control stay minimal, reflecting the distinction between capability degradation and actual territorial shifts. Potential near-term variables include ongoing navigation discussions with Oman and any escalation in maritime enforcement.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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