Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data and sustained energy price increases tied to Middle East tensions have driven market-implied odds sharply toward no Federal Reserve rate cuts through year-end. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75 percent target range following its April 29 meeting, with the median dot plot projecting at most one 25-basis-point reduction for 2026 amid resilient labor market conditions and core PCE inflation forecasts rising to 2.7 percent. Brokerage revisions from Goldman Sachs and BofA now place the first cut in late 2026 or 2027, while CME FedWatch futures assign minimal probability to easing before the June 17-18 policy decision. Traders continue to monitor incoming inflation prints and employment reports for any shift in the balance of risks.