Traders assign low single-digit to mid-teen probabilities across listed parties for the 6 December 2026 National People's Assembly vote because Guinea-Bissau’s political field remains highly fragmented after the November 2025 coup annulled prior results and installed a military-led transitional authority. The August 2026 constitutional referendum, which passed officially with roughly 70 percent support but faced opposition boycotts and reports of low turnout, reduced assembly seats from 102 to 65 and strengthened presidential powers, further complicating coalition-building among historical actors such as PAIGC and PRS-linked groups alongside smaller formations like FREPASNA and Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné.” Upcoming candidate registration deadlines and any clarification on participation by major opposition currents could shift implied probabilities by clarifying viable alliances or exclusion risks in the proportional system.