The closely matched odds for Guinea-Bissau’s December 2026 legislative election reflect a fragmented field shaped by the November 2025 coup, the annulled prior vote, and the August 2026 constitutional referendum that passed with 70% support. The new charter expands presidential authority, shrinks parliament from 102 to 65 seats, and reduces constituencies from 29 to 12, altering coalition math and entry barriers for smaller parties. Main opposition groups largely boycotted the referendum, leaving transitional authorities and a mix of established and newer lists—including FREPASNA and Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné”—competing without a clear frontrunner. Trader pricing captures this uncertainty ahead of candidate finalization and campaign dynamics that could consolidate support or trigger realignments.