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icon for Elezioni presidenziali in Guinea-Bissau

Elezioni presidenziali in Guinea-Bissau

icon for Elezioni presidenziali in Guinea-Bissau

Elezioni presidenziali in Guinea-Bissau

Fernando Dias da Costa 33.7%

José Mário Vaz 2.8%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 1.7%

João Bernardo Vieira 1.7%

Polymarket

$339,755 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa 33.7%

José Mário Vaz 2.8%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 1.7%

João Bernardo Vieira 1.7%

Polymarket

$339,755 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa

$58,286 Vol.

22%

José Mário Vaz

$22,291 Vol.

3%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló

$91,019 Vol.

9%

João Bernardo Vieira

$16,799 Vol.

2%

Baciro Djá

$14,548 Vol.

2%

Honório Augusto Lopes

$18,792 Vol.

2%

João de Deus Mendes

$17,879 Vol.

2%

Gabriel Fernando Indi

$19,458 Vol.

2%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló

$19,952 Vol.

2%

Mário da Silva Júnior

$18,352 Vol.

2%

Siga Batista

$25,961 Vol.

2%

Herculano Armando Bequinsa

$16,419 Vol.

1%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).The wide-open field in Guinea-Bissau’s December 2026 presidential election stems from the November 2025 military coup that annulled the prior vote, installed a transitional High Military Command, and sidelined both apparent frontrunner Fernando Dias da Costa and incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló. A subsequent August 2026 constitutional referendum, approved amid opposition boycott claims, expanded presidential authority over cabinet and parliament while imposing residency rules that reshape candidate eligibility. Trader consensus around Dias at 21.6 percent reflects his prior opposition coalition backing, while Embaló’s lower share tracks his ouster and exile. Fragmented support among veteran figures like José Mário Vaz and others highlights limited consolidation until military transition dynamics or party realignments clarify paths to a December majority.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volume
$339,755
Data di fine
23 nov 2025
Mercato aperto
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Risolutore

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).The wide-open field in Guinea-Bissau’s December 2026 presidential election stems from the November 2025 military coup that annulled the prior vote, installed a transitional High Military Command, and sidelined both apparent frontrunner Fernando Dias da Costa and incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló. A subsequent August 2026 constitutional referendum, approved amid opposition boycott claims, expanded presidential authority over cabinet and parliament while imposing residency rules that reshape candidate eligibility. Trader consensus around Dias at 21.6 percent reflects his prior opposition coalition backing, while Embaló’s lower share tracks his ouster and exile. Fragmented support among veteran figures like José Mário Vaz and others highlights limited consolidation until military transition dynamics or party realignments clarify paths to a December majority.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volume
$339,755
Data di fine
23 nov 2025
Mercato aperto
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Risolutore

0x2F5e3684c...

Correlati

icon for FREPASNA vincerà il maggior numero di seggi alle elezioni dell'Assemblea nazionale popolare della Guinea-Bissau del 2025?

FREPASNA vincerà il maggior numero di seggi alle elezioni dell'Assemblea nazionale popolare della Guinea-Bissau del 2025?

19%
Sì
icon for José Maria Neves vincerà le elezioni presidenziali di Capo Verde?

José Maria Neves vincerà le elezioni presidenziali di Capo Verde?

79%
Sì
icon for Adama Barrow vincerà le elezioni presidenziali gambiane del 2026?

Adama Barrow vincerà le elezioni presidenziali gambiane del 2026?

73%
Sì

Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"Elezioni presidenziali in Guinea-Bissau" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 12 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Fernando Dias da Costa" a 22%, seguito da "Umaro Sissoco Embaló" a 9%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 22¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 22% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Elezioni presidenziali in Guinea-Bissau" ha generato $339.8K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Nov 6, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Elezioni presidenziali in Guinea-Bissau", esplora i 12 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Elezioni presidenziali in Guinea-Bissau" è "Fernando Dias da Costa" a 22%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 22% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Umaro Sissoco Embaló" a 9%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Elezioni presidenziali in Guinea-Bissau" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.