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Elezioni presidenziali in Guinea-Bissau

icon for Elezioni presidenziali in Guinea-Bissau

Elezioni presidenziali in Guinea-Bissau

Fernando Dias da Costa 49.4%

Siga Batista 8.3%

Herculano Armando Bequinsa 4.5%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló 2.8%

Polymarket

$311,997 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa 49.4%

Siga Batista 8.3%

Herculano Armando Bequinsa 4.5%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló 2.8%

Polymarket

$311,997 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa

$47,964 Vol.

49%

Siga Batista

$21,449 Vol.

8%

Herculano Armando Bequinsa

$15,658 Vol.

5%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló

$18,181 Vol.

3%

Mário da Silva Júnior

$17,992 Vol.

2%

José Mário Vaz

$21,417 Vol.

2%

Honório Augusto Lopes

$17,560 Vol.

2%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló

$87,423 Vol.

1%

João Bernardo Vieira

$15,099 Vol.

1%

Gabriel Fernando Indi

$18,883 Vol.

1%

João de Deus Mendes

$16,238 Vol.

1%

Baciro Djá

$14,133 Vol.

<1%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Fernando Dias da Costa leads the market at 49.5 percent as the main challenger in Guinea-Bissau’s unresolved presidential race. The November 23, 2025, vote produced competing victory claims from Dias and incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló before official results could be released. A subsequent military intervention halted the process, leading to a junta takeover and Dias receiving asylum abroad amid reported threats. Dias benefited from backing by the barred opposition PAIGC and its leader Domingos Simões Pereira, while Embaló’s low 1.4 percent odds reflect the disruption to his bid for a second term. With no major verified developments in the past 30 days, trader consensus continues to price in ongoing uncertainty over institutional control and any eventual resolution of the contested outcome.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volume
$311,997
Data di fine
23 nov 2025
Mercato aperto
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Fernando Dias da Costa leads the market at 49.5 percent as the main challenger in Guinea-Bissau’s unresolved presidential race. The November 23, 2025, vote produced competing victory claims from Dias and incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló before official results could be released. A subsequent military intervention halted the process, leading to a junta takeover and Dias receiving asylum abroad amid reported threats. Dias benefited from backing by the barred opposition PAIGC and its leader Domingos Simões Pereira, while Embaló’s low 1.4 percent odds reflect the disruption to his bid for a second term. With no major verified developments in the past 30 days, trader consensus continues to price in ongoing uncertainty over institutional control and any eventual resolution of the contested outcome.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volume
$311,997
Data di fine
23 nov 2025
Mercato aperto
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

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"Elezioni presidenziali in Guinea-Bissau" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 12 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Fernando Dias da Costa" a 49%, seguito da "Siga Batista" a 8%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 49¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 49% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Elezioni presidenziali in Guinea-Bissau" ha generato $312K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Nov 6, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Elezioni presidenziali in Guinea-Bissau", esplora i 12 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Elezioni presidenziali in Guinea-Bissau" è "Fernando Dias da Costa" a 49%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 49% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Siga Batista" a 8%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Elezioni presidenziali in Guinea-Bissau" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.