Recent ensemble forecasts from global and regional models, including those aligned with Turkish Meteorological Service guidance, indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over central Anatolia through early September, supporting mostly sunny skies and light northeasterly winds on September 1. This setup favors daytime highs clustering around 29–31°C, consistent with the market’s strong weighting toward 30°C at 52.5% implied probability. Current late-August observations show surface temperatures near seasonal norms with dew points in the low teens, limiting moisture for convective cooling. Short-range model agreement remains high given the proximity to the target date, though minor adjustments could arise from the next 00Z or 12Z runs if boundary-layer mixing or insolation differs slightly from projections. Historical early-September maxima in Ankara average near 27–29°C, placing the current outlook modestly above climatology without extreme heat signals.