Current model consensus from sources like the Met Office and extended forecasts places Madrid’s July 15 maximum near 36°C, aligning with the market’s leading 43.5% implied probability on that outcome and 26% on 37°C. High-pressure dominance over the Iberian Peninsula, clear skies, and peak July solar insolation favor strong daytime heating, while the absence of Atlantic fronts or significant moisture limits further intensification. Recent June heatwave conditions reaching 40°C demonstrate Madrid’s potential for extremes, yet mid-July guidance shows more typical subtropical stability without anomalous warming signals. Traders weigh these factors against AEMET and ECMWF updates expected in the next 48 hours, which could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Madrid il 15 luglio?
La temperatura più alta di Madrid il 15 luglio?
36°C 47%
37°C 41%
35°C 7%
38°C 4.0%
NUOVO
NUOVO
15 lug 2026
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
1%
34°C
1%
35°C
7%
36°C
47%
37°C
41%
38°C
4%
39°C
1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
36°C 47%
37°C 41%
35°C 7%
38°C 4.0%
NUOVO
NUOVO
15 lug 2026
32°C or below
$437 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$381 Vol.
1%
34°C
$536 Vol.
1%
35°C
$1,103 Vol.
7%
36°C
$1,069 Vol.
47%
37°C
$1,589 Vol.
41%
38°C
$501 Vol.
4%
39°C
$339 Vol.
1%
40°C
$300 Vol.
<1%
41°C
$126 Vol.
<1%
42°C or higher
$121 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current model consensus from sources like the Met Office and extended forecasts places Madrid’s July 15 maximum near 36°C, aligning with the market’s leading 43.5% implied probability on that outcome and 26% on 37°C. High-pressure dominance over the Iberian Peninsula, clear skies, and peak July solar insolation favor strong daytime heating, while the absence of Atlantic fronts or significant moisture limits further intensification. Recent June heatwave conditions reaching 40°C demonstrate Madrid’s potential for extremes, yet mid-July guidance shows more typical subtropical stability without anomalous warming signals. Traders weigh these factors against AEMET and ECMWF updates expected in the next 48 hours, which could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jul 13, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$6,500Data di fine
15 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 13, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current model consensus from sources like the Met Office and extended forecasts places Madrid’s July 15 maximum near 36°C, aligning with the market’s leading 43.5% implied probability on that outcome and 26% on 37°C. High-pressure dominance over the Iberian Peninsula, clear skies, and peak July solar insolation favor strong daytime heating, while the absence of Atlantic fronts or significant moisture limits further intensification. Recent June heatwave conditions reaching 40°C demonstrate Madrid’s potential for extremes, yet mid-July guidance shows more typical subtropical stability without anomalous warming signals. Traders weigh these factors against AEMET and ECMWF updates expected in the next 48 hours, which could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,500Data di fine
15 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 13, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current model consensus from sources like the Met Office and extended forecasts places Madrid’s July 15 maximum near 36°C, aligning with the market’s leading 43.5% implied probability on that outcome and 26% on 37°C. High-pressure dominance over the Iberian Peninsula, clear skies, and peak July solar insolation favor strong daytime heating, while the absence of Atlantic fronts or significant moisture limits further intensification. Recent June heatwave conditions reaching 40°C demonstrate Madrid’s potential for extremes, yet mid-July guidance shows more typical subtropical stability without anomalous warming signals. Traders weigh these factors against AEMET and ECMWF updates expected in the next 48 hours, which could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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