Official National Weather Service observations for San Francisco on August 15 confirmed a daily maximum temperature of 68-69°F, driving the market's complete consensus at that outcome. Persistent marine-layer stratus and onshore flow off the Pacific kept temperatures well below seasonal inland averages, consistent with the city's climatological pattern of cool summers moderated by the cold California Current. Model consensus from the National Weather Service and NOAA correctly anticipated limited diurnal warming under a stable subtropical ridge with no significant offshore wind or clear-sky heating. The 100% implied probability reflects traders' recognition that recorded station data, rather than forecasts, now determines resolution. Only an unprecedented revision to official measurements or station relocation could alter the outcome at this stage.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di San Francisco il 15 agosto?
La temperatura più alta di San Francisco il 15 agosto?
68-69°F 100.0%
59°F o inferiore <1%
60-61°F <1%
62-63°F <1%
$28,250 Vol.
$28,250 Vol.
15 ago 2026
59°F o inferiore
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
Sì
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78°F o superiore
No
68-69°F 100.0%
59°F o inferiore <1%
60-61°F <1%
62-63°F <1%
$28,250 Vol.
$28,250 Vol.
15 ago 2026
59°F o inferiore
$756 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$510 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$4,035 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$1,920 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$4,244 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$6,585 Vol.
Sì
70-71°F
$4,078 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$2,264 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$1,939 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$1,297 Vol.
No
78°F o superiore
$623 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations for San Francisco on August 15 confirmed a daily maximum temperature of 68-69°F, driving the market's complete consensus at that outcome. Persistent marine-layer stratus and onshore flow off the Pacific kept temperatures well below seasonal inland averages, consistent with the city's climatological pattern of cool summers moderated by the cold California Current. Model consensus from the National Weather Service and NOAA correctly anticipated limited diurnal warming under a stable subtropical ridge with no significant offshore wind or clear-sky heating. The 100% implied probability reflects traders' recognition that recorded station data, rather than forecasts, now determines resolution. Only an unprecedented revision to official measurements or station relocation could alter the outcome at this stage.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Volume
$28,250Data di fine
15 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: Sì
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Sì
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations for San Francisco on August 15 confirmed a daily maximum temperature of 68-69°F, driving the market's complete consensus at that outcome. Persistent marine-layer stratus and onshore flow off the Pacific kept temperatures well below seasonal inland averages, consistent with the city's climatological pattern of cool summers moderated by the cold California Current. Model consensus from the National Weather Service and NOAA correctly anticipated limited diurnal warming under a stable subtropical ridge with no significant offshore wind or clear-sky heating. The 100% implied probability reflects traders' recognition that recorded station data, rather than forecasts, now determines resolution. Only an unprecedented revision to official measurements or station relocation could alter the outcome at this stage.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$28,250Data di fine
15 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: Sì
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Sì
Official National Weather Service observations for San Francisco on August 15 confirmed a daily maximum temperature of 68-69°F, driving the market's complete consensus at that outcome. Persistent marine-layer stratus and onshore flow off the Pacific kept temperatures well below seasonal inland averages, consistent with the city's climatological pattern of cool summers moderated by the cold California Current. Model consensus from the National Weather Service and NOAA correctly anticipated limited diurnal warming under a stable subtropical ridge with no significant offshore wind or clear-sky heating. The 100% implied probability reflects traders' recognition that recorded station data, rather than forecasts, now determines resolution. Only an unprecedented revision to official measurements or station relocation could alter the outcome at this stage.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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