Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings, including April CPI and producer prices, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.59% as of May 15, 2026, its highest level in nearly 10 months and up roughly 20 basis points in the past week. Persistent price pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with elevated fiscal deficits and steady Treasury supply, are supporting higher term premiums and limiting expectations for aggressive monetary easing. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%–3.75%, traders are watching upcoming labor market data, retail sales, and any shifts in FOMC guidance for signals on whether yields could test 4.75% or higher before year-end, while structural factors like potential tariff impacts continue to influence long-term rate expectations through 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanto sarà alto il rendimento del Tesoro a 10 anni prima del 2027?
Quanto sarà alto il rendimento del Tesoro a 10 anni prima del 2027?
$215,469 Vol.
31 dic 2026
4,6%
97%
4,8%
45%
5,0%
27%
5,2%
10%
5,5%
7%
5,7%
6%
6,0%
3%
$215,469 Vol.
4,6%
$37,793 Vol.
97%
4,8%
$47,611 Vol.
45%
5,0%
$49,754 Vol.
27%
5,2%
$9,115 Vol.
10%
5,5%
$1,448 Vol.
7%
5,7%
$3,229 Vol.
6%
6,0%
$2,128 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings, including April CPI and producer prices, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.59% as of May 15, 2026, its highest level in nearly 10 months and up roughly 20 basis points in the past week. Persistent price pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with elevated fiscal deficits and steady Treasury supply, are supporting higher term premiums and limiting expectations for aggressive monetary easing. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%–3.75%, traders are watching upcoming labor market data, retail sales, and any shifts in FOMC guidance for signals on whether yields could test 4.75% or higher before year-end, while structural factors like potential tariff impacts continue to influence long-term rate expectations through 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Mercato aperto: Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$215,469Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Sì
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Sì
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings, including April CPI and producer prices, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.59% as of May 15, 2026, its highest level in nearly 10 months and up roughly 20 basis points in the past week. Persistent price pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with elevated fiscal deficits and steady Treasury supply, are supporting higher term premiums and limiting expectations for aggressive monetary easing. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%–3.75%, traders are watching upcoming labor market data, retail sales, and any shifts in FOMC guidance for signals on whether yields could test 4.75% or higher before year-end, while structural factors like potential tariff impacts continue to influence long-term rate expectations through 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$215,469Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Sì
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Sì
Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings, including April CPI and producer prices, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.59% as of May 15, 2026, its highest level in nearly 10 months and up roughly 20 basis points in the past week. Persistent price pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with elevated fiscal deficits and steady Treasury supply, are supporting higher term premiums and limiting expectations for aggressive monetary easing. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%–3.75%, traders are watching upcoming labor market data, retail sales, and any shifts in FOMC guidance for signals on whether yields could test 4.75% or higher before year-end, while structural factors like potential tariff impacts continue to influence long-term rate expectations through 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti