Global seismic monitoring by the USGS recorded exactly six earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater between May 11 and May 17, aligning with the market's dominant 94.7% implied probability for that outcome. This count reflects standard weekly rates of moderate tectonic activity, primarily along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire and scattered intraplate events, without major aftershock sequences or cluster activity pushing the total higher. Historical USGS catalogs show similar frequencies during periods lacking significant volcanic or plate-boundary stress releases. Final resolution hinges on any post-week magnitude revisions or newly confirmed detections, though such adjustments remain uncommon once preliminary data stabilize.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
6 94.8%
7 2.3%
4 <1%
≤3 <1%
$145,635 Vol.
$145,635 Vol.
17 mag 2026
≤3
<1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
6
95%
7
9%
8
<1%
9
<1%
>9
<1%
6 94.8%
7 2.3%
4 <1%
≤3 <1%
$145,635 Vol.
$145,635 Vol.
17 mag 2026
≤3
$59,992 Vol.
<1%
4
$20,043 Vol.
<1%
5
$20,157 Vol.
<1%
6
$5,800 Vol.
95%
7
$6,421 Vol.
9%
8
$8,163 Vol.
<1%
9
$6,860 Vol.
<1%
>9
$18,199 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring by the USGS recorded exactly six earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater between May 11 and May 17, aligning with the market's dominant 94.7% implied probability for that outcome. This count reflects standard weekly rates of moderate tectonic activity, primarily along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire and scattered intraplate events, without major aftershock sequences or cluster activity pushing the total higher. Historical USGS catalogs show similar frequencies during periods lacking significant volcanic or plate-boundary stress releases. Final resolution hinges on any post-week magnitude revisions or newly confirmed detections, though such adjustments remain uncommon once preliminary data stabilize.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercato aperto: May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$145,635Data di fine
17 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring by the USGS recorded exactly six earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater between May 11 and May 17, aligning with the market's dominant 94.7% implied probability for that outcome. This count reflects standard weekly rates of moderate tectonic activity, primarily along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire and scattered intraplate events, without major aftershock sequences or cluster activity pushing the total higher. Historical USGS catalogs show similar frequencies during periods lacking significant volcanic or plate-boundary stress releases. Final resolution hinges on any post-week magnitude revisions or newly confirmed detections, though such adjustments remain uncommon once preliminary data stabilize.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$145,635Data di fine
17 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismic monitoring by the USGS recorded exactly six earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater between May 11 and May 17, aligning with the market's dominant 94.7% implied probability for that outcome. This count reflects standard weekly rates of moderate tectonic activity, primarily along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire and scattered intraplate events, without major aftershock sequences or cluster activity pushing the total higher. Historical USGS catalogs show similar frequencies during periods lacking significant volcanic or plate-boundary stress releases. Final resolution hinges on any post-week magnitude revisions or newly confirmed detections, though such adjustments remain uncommon once preliminary data stabilize.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti