Traders assign a 95% implied probability to fewer than five posts from official Khamenei accounts on X during September 11-18, 2026, reflecting the Supreme Leader’s office historical pattern of measured, event-driven statements rather than routine daily updates. Recent activity from successor Mojtaba Khamenei and legacy accounts shows sporadic releases tied to major diplomatic or security developments, with gaps of days or weeks between original posts even amid ongoing regional tensions. This consensus aligns with established base rates for such institutional accounts. A sudden escalation in conflicts or a policy announcement requiring multiple clarifications could increase volume, though structural preferences for concise official messaging limit the likelihood of rapid shifts within the resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoKhamenei # posts 11 settembre - 18 settembre 2026?
Khamenei # posts 11 settembre - 18 settembre 2026?
<5 95%
5-9 3.5%
40-44 1.0%
55-59 1.0%
$11,889 Vol.
$11,889 Vol.
18 set 2026
<5
95%
5-9
3%
10-14
1%
15-19
<1%
20-24
<1%
25-29
1%
30-34
1%
35-39
1%
40-44
1%
45-49
1%
50-54
1%
55-59
1%
Più di 60
<1%
<5 95%
5-9 3.5%
40-44 1.0%
55-59 1.0%
$11,889 Vol.
$11,889 Vol.
18 set 2026
<5
$2,860 Vol.
95%
5-9
$1,361 Vol.
3%
10-14
$1,168 Vol.
1%
15-19
$1,092 Vol.
<1%
20-24
$1,007 Vol.
<1%
25-29
$1,007 Vol.
1%
30-34
$1,017 Vol.
1%
35-39
$551 Vol.
1%
40-44
$278 Vol.
1%
45-49
$402 Vol.
1%
50-54
$300 Vol.
1%
55-59
$383 Vol.
1%
Più di 60
$462 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between September 11, 12:00 PM ET and September 18, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders assign a 95% implied probability to fewer than five posts from official Khamenei accounts on X during September 11-18, 2026, reflecting the Supreme Leader’s office historical pattern of measured, event-driven statements rather than routine daily updates. Recent activity from successor Mojtaba Khamenei and legacy accounts shows sporadic releases tied to major diplomatic or security developments, with gaps of days or weeks between original posts even amid ongoing regional tensions. This consensus aligns with established base rates for such institutional accounts. A sudden escalation in conflicts or a policy announcement requiring multiple clarifications could increase volume, though structural preferences for concise official messaging limit the likelihood of rapid shifts within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between September 11, 12:00 PM ET and September 18, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Sep 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$11,889Data di fine
18 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://x.com/khamenei_irRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between September 11, 12:00 PM ET and September 18, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders assign a 95% implied probability to fewer than five posts from official Khamenei accounts on X during September 11-18, 2026, reflecting the Supreme Leader’s office historical pattern of measured, event-driven statements rather than routine daily updates. Recent activity from successor Mojtaba Khamenei and legacy accounts shows sporadic releases tied to major diplomatic or security developments, with gaps of days or weeks between original posts even amid ongoing regional tensions. This consensus aligns with established base rates for such institutional accounts. A sudden escalation in conflicts or a policy announcement requiring multiple clarifications could increase volume, though structural preferences for concise official messaging limit the likelihood of rapid shifts within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between September 11, 12:00 PM ET and September 18, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$11,889Data di fine
18 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://x.com/khamenei_irRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 95% implied probability to fewer than five posts from official Khamenei accounts on X during September 11-18, 2026, reflecting the Supreme Leader’s office historical pattern of measured, event-driven statements rather than routine daily updates. Recent activity from successor Mojtaba Khamenei and legacy accounts shows sporadic releases tied to major diplomatic or security developments, with gaps of days or weeks between original posts even amid ongoing regional tensions. This consensus aligns with established base rates for such institutional accounts. A sudden escalation in conflicts or a policy announcement requiring multiple clarifications could increase volume, though structural preferences for concise official messaging limit the likelihood of rapid shifts within the resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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