Zach Dembo secured a decisive victory in the open KY-06 seat on November 3, 2026, defeating Ralph Alvarado by 9.4 points with 52.7% of the vote to 43.3% after incumbent Andy Barr retired to pursue a Senate bid. Late-cycle polling averages showed Dembo ahead by 5–6 points among likely voters, driven by stronger Democratic consolidation and turnout in the Lexington-area district, prompting forecasters to shift ratings toward toss-up status. Traders priced the Democrat 6%+ outcome at 97.2% to reflect these trends and preliminary returns exceeding pre-election expectations. Remaining ballots or minor adjustments in third-party shares could narrow the final certified margin, though current counts make shifts below 6 points unlikely.