**Late August in Chongqing features typical overnight lows of 23–27°C amid subtropical humidity and basin topography that traps warm, moist air.** With the market showing a near-even split (47% for 21°C or below versus 47% for 31°C or higher) and clustered probabilities around 24–28°C, traders are pricing in forecast uncertainty for the August 25 minimum just 48 hours out. Short-term numerical weather prediction models (e.g., from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration) can diverge on cloud cover, convective rainfall, and any weak frontal passages or residual monsoon influences that modulate nighttime radiative cooling. Precipitation or thicker cloud decks would favor cooler minima by enhancing evaporative cooling and limiting heat retention, while clearer, calmer conditions under high pressure could push lows toward the upper end of the historical range. Historical analogs show occasional 1–3°C deviations from climatology driven by these factors, and the tight clustering around 25–27°C reflects the narrow window for model consensus before resolution. Upcoming model runs and satellite observations over the next day will likely sharpen the implied probabilities.