**Recent official and model forecasts for Chongqing on August 26, 2026, indicate a nighttime low near 27–29 °C under partly cloudy skies with limited precipitation.** Multiple sources, including WeatherBug (≈28 °C), LUFT TIME (27.2 °C), and Worldmeteo (29 °C), converge on this range, consistent with the market’s closely bunched probabilities for 27 °C (27.5 %), 28 °C (27.0 %), and 29 °C (23.0 %). Chongqing’s subtropical monsoon climate keeps overnight lows elevated in late August, typically 26–28 °C historically. The main near-term driver is the peripheral influence of Typhoon Zitan, which is expected to enhance moisture and cloud cover over southern districts without major cooling. This supports modest overnight radiative cooling under light winds (generally <10 km/h) and high humidity (60–75 %), limiting temperature drops. Recent observations show lows of 26–29 °C, with no strong cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative cooling expected. Forecast uncertainty stems mainly from local urban heat-island effects, exact station location, and any scattered showers that could alter the minimum by 1–2 °C. Updated model runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles over the next 24–48 hours will refine the precise minimum; traders are watching for any shift in the 850 hPa temperature or boundary-layer moisture that could push the outcome toward 26 °C or 30 °C. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around the consensus forecast reflects this short-range predictability and limited upside or downside risk.