Traders currently assign the highest implied probabilities to a Shanghai peak of 31–32°C on August 24 because numerical weather models from sources such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on surface highs near 31–33°C under typical late-summer subtropical high pressure. Subtle differences among leading outcomes hinge on forecast variables including boundary-layer moisture, afternoon convective cloud cover that could cap temperatures by 1–2°C, and any weak shortwave trough that might enhance mixing or trigger isolated thunderstorms. Historical August climatology for the region shows mean daily maxima of 30–32°C with standard deviations of roughly 2°C, placing the tightly bunched market odds squarely within the expected inter-model spread and underscoring the limited upside risk of extremes above 34°C or below 30°C absent a significant forecast shift in the next 48 hours.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Shanghai il 24 agosto?
La temperatura più alta a Shanghai il 24 agosto?
32°C 33%
31°C 31%
30°C 18%
29°C 10%
NUOVO
NUOVO
24 ago 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
10%
30°C
18%
31°C
31%
32°C
33%
33°C
9%
34°C
5%
35°C or higher
1%
32°C 33%
31°C 31%
30°C 18%
29°C 10%
NUOVO
NUOVO
24 ago 2026
25°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$0 Vol.
1%
29°C
$5 Vol.
10%
30°C
$5 Vol.
18%
31°C
$71 Vol.
31%
32°C
$42 Vol.
33%
33°C
$11 Vol.
9%
34°C
$11 Vol.
5%
35°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders currently assign the highest implied probabilities to a Shanghai peak of 31–32°C on August 24 because numerical weather models from sources such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on surface highs near 31–33°C under typical late-summer subtropical high pressure. Subtle differences among leading outcomes hinge on forecast variables including boundary-layer moisture, afternoon convective cloud cover that could cap temperatures by 1–2°C, and any weak shortwave trough that might enhance mixing or trigger isolated thunderstorms. Historical August climatology for the region shows mean daily maxima of 30–32°C with standard deviations of roughly 2°C, placing the tightly bunched market odds squarely within the expected inter-model spread and underscoring the limited upside risk of extremes above 34°C or below 30°C absent a significant forecast shift in the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$145Data di fine
24 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders currently assign the highest implied probabilities to a Shanghai peak of 31–32°C on August 24 because numerical weather models from sources such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on surface highs near 31–33°C under typical late-summer subtropical high pressure. Subtle differences among leading outcomes hinge on forecast variables including boundary-layer moisture, afternoon convective cloud cover that could cap temperatures by 1–2°C, and any weak shortwave trough that might enhance mixing or trigger isolated thunderstorms. Historical August climatology for the region shows mean daily maxima of 30–32°C with standard deviations of roughly 2°C, placing the tightly bunched market odds squarely within the expected inter-model spread and underscoring the limited upside risk of extremes above 34°C or below 30°C absent a significant forecast shift in the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$145Data di fine
24 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders currently assign the highest implied probabilities to a Shanghai peak of 31–32°C on August 24 because numerical weather models from sources such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on surface highs near 31–33°C under typical late-summer subtropical high pressure. Subtle differences among leading outcomes hinge on forecast variables including boundary-layer moisture, afternoon convective cloud cover that could cap temperatures by 1–2°C, and any weak shortwave trough that might enhance mixing or trigger isolated thunderstorms. Historical August climatology for the region shows mean daily maxima of 30–32°C with standard deviations of roughly 2°C, placing the tightly bunched market odds squarely within the expected inter-model spread and underscoring the limited upside risk of extremes above 34°C or below 30°C absent a significant forecast shift in the next 48 hours.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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