Latest ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models, aligned with Israel Meteorological Service guidance, indicate a minimum temperature near 24°C for Tel Aviv on August 24 under persistent high-pressure conditions typical of late summer. This supports elevated market-implied probabilities for outcomes clustered between 23–26°C, reflecting modest day-to-day variability in nocturnal radiative cooling and boundary-layer moisture. Recent observations show overnight lows holding 2–3°C above long-term August averages amid above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Mediterranean, which can limit cooling rates. Traders are weighting the chance of a cooler outlier scenario—potentially from stronger onshore flow or model spread—while assigning lower odds to extremes above 27°C given stable synoptic patterns. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Tel Aviv il 24 agosto?
La temperatura più bassa a Tel Aviv il 24 agosto?
30°C or higher 90%
20°C or below 86%
21°C 51%
24°C 27%
NUOVO
NUOVO
24 ago 2026
20°C or below
86%
21°C
51%
22°C
26%
23°C
26%
24°C
27%
25°C
27%
26°C
26%
27°C
11%
28°C
8%
29°C
7%
30°C or higher
90%
30°C or higher 90%
20°C or below 86%
21°C 51%
24°C 27%
NUOVO
NUOVO
24 ago 2026
20°C or below
$5 Vol.
86%
21°C
$5 Vol.
51%
22°C
$0 Vol.
26%
23°C
$0 Vol.
26%
24°C
$0 Vol.
27%
25°C
$0 Vol.
27%
26°C
$0 Vol.
26%
27°C
$4 Vol.
11%
28°C
$25 Vol.
8%
29°C
$5 Vol.
7%
30°C or higher
$5 Vol.
90%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models, aligned with Israel Meteorological Service guidance, indicate a minimum temperature near 24°C for Tel Aviv on August 24 under persistent high-pressure conditions typical of late summer. This supports elevated market-implied probabilities for outcomes clustered between 23–26°C, reflecting modest day-to-day variability in nocturnal radiative cooling and boundary-layer moisture. Recent observations show overnight lows holding 2–3°C above long-term August averages amid above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Mediterranean, which can limit cooling rates. Traders are weighting the chance of a cooler outlier scenario—potentially from stronger onshore flow or model spread—while assigning lower odds to extremes above 27°C given stable synoptic patterns. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ET
Volume
$49Data di fine
24 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models, aligned with Israel Meteorological Service guidance, indicate a minimum temperature near 24°C for Tel Aviv on August 24 under persistent high-pressure conditions typical of late summer. This supports elevated market-implied probabilities for outcomes clustered between 23–26°C, reflecting modest day-to-day variability in nocturnal radiative cooling and boundary-layer moisture. Recent observations show overnight lows holding 2–3°C above long-term August averages amid above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Mediterranean, which can limit cooling rates. Traders are weighting the chance of a cooler outlier scenario—potentially from stronger onshore flow or model spread—while assigning lower odds to extremes above 27°C given stable synoptic patterns. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$49Data di fine
24 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models, aligned with Israel Meteorological Service guidance, indicate a minimum temperature near 24°C for Tel Aviv on August 24 under persistent high-pressure conditions typical of late summer. This supports elevated market-implied probabilities for outcomes clustered between 23–26°C, reflecting modest day-to-day variability in nocturnal radiative cooling and boundary-layer moisture. Recent observations show overnight lows holding 2–3°C above long-term August averages amid above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Mediterranean, which can limit cooling rates. Traders are weighting the chance of a cooler outlier scenario—potentially from stronger onshore flow or model spread—while assigning lower odds to extremes above 27°C given stable synoptic patterns. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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