**Current forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature in Madrid on September 6 around 21–24°C, shaped by a persistent high-pressure system and clear skies amid an ongoing late-summer heatwave.** Official guidance and ensemble models show daytime highs near 34–36°C with light winds and minimal cloud cover, allowing radiative cooling overnight but limiting it due to warm air advection and urban effects. This setup favors overnight lows in the low 20s°C rather than the historical early-September average near 17°C. Recent model runs have shown limited spread, with some guidance dipping toward 21°C under slightly stronger northerly flow or clearer conditions, supporting the market’s leading 21°C-or-below bucket at 46% implied probability. Warmer outcomes above 23°C retain substantial weight because the heat dome and southerly flow components can suppress cooling. New AEMET or ECMWF updates in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact threshold as the event nears resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Madrid il 6 settembre?
La temperatura più bassa di Madrid il 6 settembre?
31°C o superiore 47%
21°C o inferiore 46%
22°C 27%
23°C 22%
NUOVO
NUOVO
6 set 2026
21°C o inferiore
46%
22°C
27%
23°C
22%
24°C
17%
25°C
19%
26°C
2%
27°C
16%
28°C
15%
29°C
15%
30°C
15%
31°C o superiore
47%
31°C o superiore 47%
21°C o inferiore 46%
22°C 27%
23°C 22%
NUOVO
NUOVO
6 set 2026
21°C o inferiore
$0 Vol.
46%
22°C
$0 Vol.
27%
23°C
$0 Vol.
22%
24°C
$0 Vol.
17%
25°C
$0 Vol.
19%
26°C
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C
$0 Vol.
16%
28°C
$0 Vol.
15%
29°C
$0 Vol.
15%
30°C
$0 Vol.
15%
31°C o superiore
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature in Madrid on September 6 around 21–24°C, shaped by a persistent high-pressure system and clear skies amid an ongoing late-summer heatwave.** Official guidance and ensemble models show daytime highs near 34–36°C with light winds and minimal cloud cover, allowing radiative cooling overnight but limiting it due to warm air advection and urban effects. This setup favors overnight lows in the low 20s°C rather than the historical early-September average near 17°C.
Recent model runs have shown limited spread, with some guidance dipping toward 21°C under slightly stronger northerly flow or clearer conditions, supporting the market’s leading 21°C-or-below bucket at 46% implied probability. Warmer outcomes above 23°C retain substantial weight because the heat dome and southerly flow components can suppress cooling. New AEMET or ECMWF updates in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact threshold as the event nears resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
6 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature in Madrid on September 6 around 21–24°C, shaped by a persistent high-pressure system and clear skies amid an ongoing late-summer heatwave.** Official guidance and ensemble models show daytime highs near 34–36°C with light winds and minimal cloud cover, allowing radiative cooling overnight but limiting it due to warm air advection and urban effects. This setup favors overnight lows in the low 20s°C rather than the historical early-September average near 17°C.
Recent model runs have shown limited spread, with some guidance dipping toward 21°C under slightly stronger northerly flow or clearer conditions, supporting the market’s leading 21°C-or-below bucket at 46% implied probability. Warmer outcomes above 23°C retain substantial weight because the heat dome and southerly flow components can suppress cooling. New AEMET or ECMWF updates in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact threshold as the event nears resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Data di fine
6 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature in Madrid on September 6 around 21–24°C, shaped by a persistent high-pressure system and clear skies amid an ongoing late-summer heatwave.** Official guidance and ensemble models show daytime highs near 34–36°C with light winds and minimal cloud cover, allowing radiative cooling overnight but limiting it due to warm air advection and urban effects. This setup favors overnight lows in the low 20s°C rather than the historical early-September average near 17°C. Recent model runs have shown limited spread, with some guidance dipping toward 21°C under slightly stronger northerly flow or clearer conditions, supporting the market’s leading 21°C-or-below bucket at 46% implied probability. Warmer outcomes above 23°C retain substantial weight because the heat dome and southerly flow components can suppress cooling. New AEMET or ECMWF updates in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact threshold as the event nears resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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