**Forecast models as of September 4, 2026, indicate a highest temperature in Madrid on September 6 most likely in the 35–37°C range, aligning with market-implied odds favoring 36°C (36%) and 37°C (47%).** Multiple sources, including WeatherBug, Globalmeteo, and Yr.no, project afternoon highs near 96–97°F (35.6–36.1°C) under mostly sunny to clear conditions with light southerly or easterly winds and low humidity. These values sit well above the 1991–2020 September 6 average high of 28.7°C but below the all-time record of 38.9°C set in 2016. A broad heatwave driven by a hot, dry air mass from North Africa, reinforced by high pressure over the region and a low-pressure system to the southwest, has produced extreme temperatures across Spain, including a national September record of 45.7°C on September 4. This synoptic pattern supports elevated readings in Madrid, though local steering and slight model consensus on modest moderation keep the most probable outcomes clustered around 36–37°C. The 38°C outcome (12.5%) remains plausible if the ridge strengthens or winds align favorably, while lower probabilities for 35°C or below reflect the current warm baseline and minimal precipitation risk. Traders appear to weigh the latest official agency guidance and ensemble forecasts heavily, with skin-in-the-game consensus reflecting both the established heat anomaly and the narrow uncertainty window ahead of the September 6 resolution. Upcoming model runs and any AEMET updates on steering patterns could shift these implied probabilities before the market closes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Madrid il 6 settembre?
La temperatura più alta di Madrid il 6 settembre?
37°C 46%
36°C 39%
38°C 11%
35°C 6%
NUOVO
NUOVO
6 set 2026
33°C o inferiore
1%
34°C
2%
35°C
6%
36°C
39%
37°C
46%
38°C
11%
39°C
3%
40°C
1%
41°C
1%
42°C
<1%
43°C o superiore
<1%
37°C 46%
36°C 39%
38°C 11%
35°C 6%
NUOVO
NUOVO
6 set 2026
33°C o inferiore
$199 Vol.
1%
34°C
$90 Vol.
2%
35°C
$279 Vol.
6%
36°C
$735 Vol.
39%
37°C
$390 Vol.
46%
38°C
$434 Vol.
11%
39°C
$89 Vol.
3%
40°C
$18 Vol.
1%
41°C
$103 Vol.
1%
42°C
$23 Vol.
<1%
43°C o superiore
$189 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models as of September 4, 2026, indicate a highest temperature in Madrid on September 6 most likely in the 35–37°C range, aligning with market-implied odds favoring 36°C (36%) and 37°C (47%).** Multiple sources, including WeatherBug, Globalmeteo, and Yr.no, project afternoon highs near 96–97°F (35.6–36.1°C) under mostly sunny to clear conditions with light southerly or easterly winds and low humidity. These values sit well above the 1991–2020 September 6 average high of 28.7°C but below the all-time record of 38.9°C set in 2016.
A broad heatwave driven by a hot, dry air mass from North Africa, reinforced by high pressure over the region and a low-pressure system to the southwest, has produced extreme temperatures across Spain, including a national September record of 45.7°C on September 4. This synoptic pattern supports elevated readings in Madrid, though local steering and slight model consensus on modest moderation keep the most probable outcomes clustered around 36–37°C. The 38°C outcome (12.5%) remains plausible if the ridge strengthens or winds align favorably, while lower probabilities for 35°C or below reflect the current warm baseline and minimal precipitation risk.
Traders appear to weigh the latest official agency guidance and ensemble forecasts heavily, with skin-in-the-game consensus reflecting both the established heat anomaly and the narrow uncertainty window ahead of the September 6 resolution. Upcoming model runs and any AEMET updates on steering patterns could shift these implied probabilities before the market closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$2,548Data di fine
6 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models as of September 4, 2026, indicate a highest temperature in Madrid on September 6 most likely in the 35–37°C range, aligning with market-implied odds favoring 36°C (36%) and 37°C (47%).** Multiple sources, including WeatherBug, Globalmeteo, and Yr.no, project afternoon highs near 96–97°F (35.6–36.1°C) under mostly sunny to clear conditions with light southerly or easterly winds and low humidity. These values sit well above the 1991–2020 September 6 average high of 28.7°C but below the all-time record of 38.9°C set in 2016.
A broad heatwave driven by a hot, dry air mass from North Africa, reinforced by high pressure over the region and a low-pressure system to the southwest, has produced extreme temperatures across Spain, including a national September record of 45.7°C on September 4. This synoptic pattern supports elevated readings in Madrid, though local steering and slight model consensus on modest moderation keep the most probable outcomes clustered around 36–37°C. The 38°C outcome (12.5%) remains plausible if the ridge strengthens or winds align favorably, while lower probabilities for 35°C or below reflect the current warm baseline and minimal precipitation risk.
Traders appear to weigh the latest official agency guidance and ensemble forecasts heavily, with skin-in-the-game consensus reflecting both the established heat anomaly and the narrow uncertainty window ahead of the September 6 resolution. Upcoming model runs and any AEMET updates on steering patterns could shift these implied probabilities before the market closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,548Data di fine
6 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models as of September 4, 2026, indicate a highest temperature in Madrid on September 6 most likely in the 35–37°C range, aligning with market-implied odds favoring 36°C (36%) and 37°C (47%).** Multiple sources, including WeatherBug, Globalmeteo, and Yr.no, project afternoon highs near 96–97°F (35.6–36.1°C) under mostly sunny to clear conditions with light southerly or easterly winds and low humidity. These values sit well above the 1991–2020 September 6 average high of 28.7°C but below the all-time record of 38.9°C set in 2016. A broad heatwave driven by a hot, dry air mass from North Africa, reinforced by high pressure over the region and a low-pressure system to the southwest, has produced extreme temperatures across Spain, including a national September record of 45.7°C on September 4. This synoptic pattern supports elevated readings in Madrid, though local steering and slight model consensus on modest moderation keep the most probable outcomes clustered around 36–37°C. The 38°C outcome (12.5%) remains plausible if the ridge strengthens or winds align favorably, while lower probabilities for 35°C or below reflect the current warm baseline and minimal precipitation risk. Traders appear to weigh the latest official agency guidance and ensemble forecasts heavily, with skin-in-the-game consensus reflecting both the established heat anomaly and the narrow uncertainty window ahead of the September 6 resolution. Upcoming model runs and any AEMET updates on steering patterns could shift these implied probabilities before the market closes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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