**Forecast models currently indicate overnight lows in Milan of 20–22°C for August 29, driven by a stable high-pressure regime with light westerly to northwesterly winds, clear to partly cloudy skies, and moderate radiative cooling under low humidity (around 60–80% at night).** Italian and international sources (ilMeteo.it, globalmeteo, WeatherBug, yr.no) consistently project a minimum near 21–22°C, with daytime highs reaching 28–30°C. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around 18–20°C outcomes (23–29% implied probability each), as traders weigh typical model spread of ±1–2°C from local urban effects and exact timing of the daily minimum. The 23°C+ bin at 26.5% captures upside risk if winds remain calm or cloud cover increases, while sub-17°C outcomes reflect lower probability under current subsidence and absence of cooler air advection. Updated model runs and official minimum observations on the 29th will be the key near-term catalysts.