Trader consensus clusters tightly around 25–28°C for Shenzhen’s minimum on August 22 because late-summer subtropical monsoon conditions typically produce overnight lows near 26°C. High humidity above 75% and persistent cloud cover limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while isolated thunderstorms and light winds introduce modest variability through evaporative cooling and boundary-layer mixing. Forecasts showing reduced rainfall and calmer conditions favor the slight edge for 27°C, whereas increased overcast skies or convective activity support 25–26°C by enhancing surface heat loss. These narrow differences reflect model uncertainty in short-term humidity, precipitation timing, and local wind patterns rather than any broader climatic shift.