Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models indicate substantial spread in Warsaw’s overnight minimum for August 22, with most solutions clustered between 12–14 °C. This narrow range reflects competing influences on nocturnal radiative cooling: variable mid-level cloud cover expected from a weak frontal passage, light westerly winds that may limit boundary-layer mixing, and modest advection of slightly cooler maritime air. Clearer breaks would favor readings near or below 12 °C, while increased cloudiness or a delayed frontal arrival would support 14 °C or higher. With only 48 hours until resolution and model runs still diverging on exact timing of any showers, traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities across the 12–14 °C outcomes.