Minnesota's 4th congressional district has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Betty McCollum's 67% victory in 2024. McCollum, the longtime incumbent first elected in 2000, secured the DFL nomination again following the August 11, 2026 primaries, while Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom emerged from a contested GOP primary. The district's urban and suburban composition in the Twin Cities area, combined with its partisan voting history and lack of competitive indicators in statewide or national polling aggregates, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the market odds. A flip would require an unusually large swing driven by factors such as a national Republican wave, unforeseen candidate withdrawal due to health or scandal, or significant local turnout shifts not evident in prior elections.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMN-04 House Election Winner
MN-04 House Election Winner
$21,291 Vol.
$21,291 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$21,291 Vol.
$21,291 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$3,902 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$17,390 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 4th congressional district has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Betty McCollum's 67% victory in 2024. McCollum, the longtime incumbent first elected in 2000, secured the DFL nomination again following the August 11, 2026 primaries, while Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom emerged from a contested GOP primary. The district's urban and suburban composition in the Twin Cities area, combined with its partisan voting history and lack of competitive indicators in statewide or national polling aggregates, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the market odds. A flip would require an unusually large swing driven by factors such as a national Republican wave, unforeseen candidate withdrawal due to health or scandal, or significant local turnout shifts not evident in prior elections.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$21,291Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 4th congressional district has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Betty McCollum's 67% victory in 2024. McCollum, the longtime incumbent first elected in 2000, secured the DFL nomination again following the August 11, 2026 primaries, while Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom emerged from a contested GOP primary. The district's urban and suburban composition in the Twin Cities area, combined with its partisan voting history and lack of competitive indicators in statewide or national polling aggregates, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the market odds. A flip would require an unusually large swing driven by factors such as a national Republican wave, unforeseen candidate withdrawal due to health or scandal, or significant local turnout shifts not evident in prior elections.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,291Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Minnesota's 4th congressional district has consistently delivered large Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Betty McCollum's 67% victory in 2024. McCollum, the longtime incumbent first elected in 2000, secured the DFL nomination again following the August 11, 2026 primaries, while Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom emerged from a contested GOP primary. The district's urban and suburban composition in the Twin Cities area, combined with its partisan voting history and lack of competitive indicators in statewide or national polling aggregates, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the market odds. A flip would require an unusually large swing driven by factors such as a national Republican wave, unforeseen candidate withdrawal due to health or scandal, or significant local turnout shifts not evident in prior elections.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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