Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey commands trader consensus at 92.5% to retain Maryland's 4th Congressional District in the November 3 general election, driven by the district's D+40 partisan lean—one of the nation's deepest blue—and his fundraising dominance with over $450,000 cash on hand as of late March. Recent Governor Wes Moore endorsement on May 7 reinforces his primary position ahead of the June 23 vote against lesser-funded challengers Joseph Gomes and Shavonne Hedgepeth, while no credible Republican has emerged. This skin-in-the-game pricing reflects historical Democratic lock despite midterms' volatility. Realistic shifts require Ivey primary upset, late GOP powerhouse recruit, personal scandal, or overwhelming national Republican wave.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMD-04 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
MD-04 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
$23,185 Vol.
$23,185 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
93%
Partito Repubblicano
7%
$23,185 Vol.
$23,185 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
$7,857 Vol.
93%
Partito Repubblicano
$15,328 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey commands trader consensus at 92.5% to retain Maryland's 4th Congressional District in the November 3 general election, driven by the district's D+40 partisan lean—one of the nation's deepest blue—and his fundraising dominance with over $450,000 cash on hand as of late March. Recent Governor Wes Moore endorsement on May 7 reinforces his primary position ahead of the June 23 vote against lesser-funded challengers Joseph Gomes and Shavonne Hedgepeth, while no credible Republican has emerged. This skin-in-the-game pricing reflects historical Democratic lock despite midterms' volatility. Realistic shifts require Ivey primary upset, late GOP powerhouse recruit, personal scandal, or overwhelming national Republican wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$23,185Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey commands trader consensus at 92.5% to retain Maryland's 4th Congressional District in the November 3 general election, driven by the district's D+40 partisan lean—one of the nation's deepest blue—and his fundraising dominance with over $450,000 cash on hand as of late March. Recent Governor Wes Moore endorsement on May 7 reinforces his primary position ahead of the June 23 vote against lesser-funded challengers Joseph Gomes and Shavonne Hedgepeth, while no credible Republican has emerged. This skin-in-the-game pricing reflects historical Democratic lock despite midterms' volatility. Realistic shifts require Ivey primary upset, late GOP powerhouse recruit, personal scandal, or overwhelming national Republican wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$23,185Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey commands trader consensus at 92.5% to retain Maryland's 4th Congressional District in the November 3 general election, driven by the district's D+40 partisan lean—one of the nation's deepest blue—and his fundraising dominance with over $450,000 cash on hand as of late March. Recent Governor Wes Moore endorsement on May 7 reinforces his primary position ahead of the June 23 vote against lesser-funded challengers Joseph Gomes and Shavonne Hedgepeth, while no credible Republican has emerged. This skin-in-the-game pricing reflects historical Democratic lock despite midterms' volatility. Realistic shifts require Ivey primary upset, late GOP powerhouse recruit, personal scandal, or overwhelming national Republican wave.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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