Maryland's 4th congressional district maintains one of the strongest Democratic leans in the country, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+39 and consistent margins above 85 percent for Democratic nominees in recent cycles. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 80 percent of the vote against several challengers, positioning him for the November general election against Republican George McDermott, a perennial candidate with minimal fundraising and organizational support. The combination of entrenched voter demographics in Prince George's County, the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure, and Ivey's incumbency advantages underpins trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A shift would require an extraordinary event such as a major scandal, unforeseen redistricting, or an unprecedented national political realignment within the district.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMD-04 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
MD-04 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
$46,393 Vol.
$46,393 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
98%
Partito Repubblicano
1%
$46,393 Vol.
$46,393 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
$20,914 Vol.
98%
Partito Repubblicano
$25,480 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 4th congressional district maintains one of the strongest Democratic leans in the country, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+39 and consistent margins above 85 percent for Democratic nominees in recent cycles. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 80 percent of the vote against several challengers, positioning him for the November general election against Republican George McDermott, a perennial candidate with minimal fundraising and organizational support. The combination of entrenched voter demographics in Prince George's County, the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure, and Ivey's incumbency advantages underpins trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A shift would require an extraordinary event such as a major scandal, unforeseen redistricting, or an unprecedented national political realignment within the district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$46,393Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 4th congressional district maintains one of the strongest Democratic leans in the country, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+39 and consistent margins above 85 percent for Democratic nominees in recent cycles. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 80 percent of the vote against several challengers, positioning him for the November general election against Republican George McDermott, a perennial candidate with minimal fundraising and organizational support. The combination of entrenched voter demographics in Prince George's County, the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure, and Ivey's incumbency advantages underpins trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A shift would require an extraordinary event such as a major scandal, unforeseen redistricting, or an unprecedented national political realignment within the district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$46,393Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland's 4th congressional district maintains one of the strongest Democratic leans in the country, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+39 and consistent margins above 85 percent for Democratic nominees in recent cycles. Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 80 percent of the vote against several challengers, positioning him for the November general election against Republican George McDermott, a perennial candidate with minimal fundraising and organizational support. The combination of entrenched voter demographics in Prince George's County, the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure, and Ivey's incumbency advantages underpins trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A shift would require an extraordinary event such as a major scandal, unforeseen redistricting, or an unprecedented national political realignment within the district.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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