Trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 80.5% in the Montana Senate race, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean—evident in recent presidential and House results—and frontrunner Kurt Alme's position in the June 2 Republican primary, backed by retiring incumbent Steve Daines' endorsement after his surprise March withdrawal. Independent Seth Bodnar, former University of Montana president, commands 16% implied probability due to leading first-quarter fundraising and name recognition in the open-seat contest, potentially splitting votes in this red battleground. Democrats trail at 3.5%, hampered by a crowded five-candidate primary lacking a clear frontrunner and weaker resources, with no recent polls shifting dynamics ahead of primaries.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoRepubblicano 81%
Indipendente 16.0%
Democratico 3.5%
$72,311 Vol.
$72,311 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Repubblicano
81%
Indipendente
16%
Democratico
3%
Repubblicano 81%
Indipendente 16.0%
Democratico 3.5%
$72,311 Vol.
$72,311 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Repubblicano
$37,368 Vol.
81%
Indipendente
$1,493 Vol.
16%
Democratico
$33,450 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 80.5% in the Montana Senate race, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean—evident in recent presidential and House results—and frontrunner Kurt Alme's position in the June 2 Republican primary, backed by retiring incumbent Steve Daines' endorsement after his surprise March withdrawal. Independent Seth Bodnar, former University of Montana president, commands 16% implied probability due to leading first-quarter fundraising and name recognition in the open-seat contest, potentially splitting votes in this red battleground. Democrats trail at 3.5%, hampered by a crowded five-candidate primary lacking a clear frontrunner and weaker resources, with no recent polls shifting dynamics ahead of primaries.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercato aperto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$72,311Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 80.5% in the Montana Senate race, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean—evident in recent presidential and House results—and frontrunner Kurt Alme's position in the June 2 Republican primary, backed by retiring incumbent Steve Daines' endorsement after his surprise March withdrawal. Independent Seth Bodnar, former University of Montana president, commands 16% implied probability due to leading first-quarter fundraising and name recognition in the open-seat contest, potentially splitting votes in this red battleground. Democrats trail at 3.5%, hampered by a crowded five-candidate primary lacking a clear frontrunner and weaker resources, with no recent polls shifting dynamics ahead of primaries.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$72,311Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 80.5% in the Montana Senate race, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean—evident in recent presidential and House results—and frontrunner Kurt Alme's position in the June 2 Republican primary, backed by retiring incumbent Steve Daines' endorsement after his surprise March withdrawal. Independent Seth Bodnar, former University of Montana president, commands 16% implied probability due to leading first-quarter fundraising and name recognition in the open-seat contest, potentially splitting votes in this red battleground. Democrats trail at 3.5%, hampered by a crowded five-candidate primary lacking a clear frontrunner and weaker resources, with no recent polls shifting dynamics ahead of primaries.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti