The National Hurricane Center's initial Tropical Weather Outlook on May 15, 2026, highlights no Atlantic disturbances with development potential over the next seven days, reinforcing trader consensus at 81.2% market-implied odds for no named storm before June 1. Unfavorable conditions—including high vertical wind shear from a strong subtropical ridge, dry Saharan air intrusions, and sea surface temperatures still below optimal thresholds in the main development region—mirror historical pre-season suppression, where named storms before June 1 occur in fewer than 10% of years since 1851. While model ensembles show low formation signals through late May, daily NHC updates and evolving atmospheric patterns could prompt shifts, though current evidence supports the strong "No" positioning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoForme di tempesta denominate prima della stagione degli uragani?
Forme di tempesta denominate prima della stagione degli uragani?
Sì
$341,174 Vol.
$341,174 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Sì
$341,174 Vol.
$341,174 Vol.
31 mag 2026
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The National Hurricane Center's initial Tropical Weather Outlook on May 15, 2026, highlights no Atlantic disturbances with development potential over the next seven days, reinforcing trader consensus at 81.2% market-implied odds for no named storm before June 1. Unfavorable conditions—including high vertical wind shear from a strong subtropical ridge, dry Saharan air intrusions, and sea surface temperatures still below optimal thresholds in the main development region—mirror historical pre-season suppression, where named storms before June 1 occur in fewer than 10% of years since 1851. While model ensembles show low formation signals through late May, daily NHC updates and evolving atmospheric patterns could prompt shifts, though current evidence supports the strong "No" positioning.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Mercato aperto: Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET
Volume
$341,174Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The National Hurricane Center's initial Tropical Weather Outlook on May 15, 2026, highlights no Atlantic disturbances with development potential over the next seven days, reinforcing trader consensus at 81.2% market-implied odds for no named storm before June 1. Unfavorable conditions—including high vertical wind shear from a strong subtropical ridge, dry Saharan air intrusions, and sea surface temperatures still below optimal thresholds in the main development region—mirror historical pre-season suppression, where named storms before June 1 occur in fewer than 10% of years since 1851. While model ensembles show low formation signals through late May, daily NHC updates and evolving atmospheric patterns could prompt shifts, though current evidence supports the strong "No" positioning.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$341,174Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The National Hurricane Center's initial Tropical Weather Outlook on May 15, 2026, highlights no Atlantic disturbances with development potential over the next seven days, reinforcing trader consensus at 81.2% market-implied odds for no named storm before June 1. Unfavorable conditions—including high vertical wind shear from a strong subtropical ridge, dry Saharan air intrusions, and sea surface temperatures still below optimal thresholds in the main development region—mirror historical pre-season suppression, where named storms before June 1 occur in fewer than 10% of years since 1851. While model ensembles show low formation signals through late May, daily NHC updates and evolving atmospheric patterns could prompt shifts, though current evidence supports the strong "No" positioning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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