Strong first-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 2.0 percent, driven by surging business investment in AI-related equipment and fiscal support from prior tax measures, underpins the 93.7 percent market-implied probability against negative annual growth. Consensus forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office and private economists project full-year expansion of 1.8 to 2.5 percent, reflecting resilient consumer spending, lower energy-price headwinds, and easing financial conditions. Traders price in limited recession risk near 12 to 30 percent over the next twelve months, consistent with historical base rates for outright annual contraction. Potential challenges include sharper tariff impacts on trade flows, sustained weakness in consumer sentiment, or an unexpected labor-market deterioration that could trim growth below zero, though current leading indicators show little evidence of such a shift ahead of the next FOMC meeting and upcoming employment data.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCrescita negativa del PIL nel 2026?
Crescita negativa del PIL nel 2026?
Sì
$26,508 Vol.
$26,508 Vol.
29 gen 2027
Sì
$26,508 Vol.
$26,508 Vol.
29 gen 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong first-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 2.0 percent, driven by surging business investment in AI-related equipment and fiscal support from prior tax measures, underpins the 93.7 percent market-implied probability against negative annual growth. Consensus forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office and private economists project full-year expansion of 1.8 to 2.5 percent, reflecting resilient consumer spending, lower energy-price headwinds, and easing financial conditions. Traders price in limited recession risk near 12 to 30 percent over the next twelve months, consistent with historical base rates for outright annual contraction. Potential challenges include sharper tariff impacts on trade flows, sustained weakness in consumer sentiment, or an unexpected labor-market deterioration that could trim growth below zero, though current leading indicators show little evidence of such a shift ahead of the next FOMC meeting and upcoming employment data.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$26,508Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong first-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 2.0 percent, driven by surging business investment in AI-related equipment and fiscal support from prior tax measures, underpins the 93.7 percent market-implied probability against negative annual growth. Consensus forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office and private economists project full-year expansion of 1.8 to 2.5 percent, reflecting resilient consumer spending, lower energy-price headwinds, and easing financial conditions. Traders price in limited recession risk near 12 to 30 percent over the next twelve months, consistent with historical base rates for outright annual contraction. Potential challenges include sharper tariff impacts on trade flows, sustained weakness in consumer sentiment, or an unexpected labor-market deterioration that could trim growth below zero, though current leading indicators show little evidence of such a shift ahead of the next FOMC meeting and upcoming employment data.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$26,508Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong first-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 2.0 percent, driven by surging business investment in AI-related equipment and fiscal support from prior tax measures, underpins the 93.7 percent market-implied probability against negative annual growth. Consensus forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office and private economists project full-year expansion of 1.8 to 2.5 percent, reflecting resilient consumer spending, lower energy-price headwinds, and easing financial conditions. Traders price in limited recession risk near 12 to 30 percent over the next twelve months, consistent with historical base rates for outright annual contraction. Potential challenges include sharper tariff impacts on trade flows, sustained weakness in consumer sentiment, or an unexpected labor-market deterioration that could trim growth below zero, though current leading indicators show little evidence of such a shift ahead of the next FOMC meeting and upcoming employment data.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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