Major institutions including the CBO project real GDP expanding 2.2% in 2026, with private forecasts from Vanguard, S&P Global, and Deloitte clustered around 1.8–2.3%, reflecting resilient business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies alongside supportive fiscal measures. These outlooks embed only modest recession risks, with labor-market data and consumer spending trends indicating above-trend expansion rather than contraction. Market-implied odds of 96% against negative growth therefore track the consensus baseline from official and analyst estimates. Tail risks remain low-probability but include escalation of trade tensions, sharper-than-expected labor-force contraction from immigration policy, or a sudden reversal in capital expenditures that could push quarterly readings negative.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCrescita negativa del PIL nel 2026?
Crescita negativa del PIL nel 2026?
Sì
4% probabilità
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
29 gen 2027
Sì
4% probabilità
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
29 gen 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Major institutions including the CBO project real GDP expanding 2.2% in 2026, with private forecasts from Vanguard, S&P Global, and Deloitte clustered around 1.8–2.3%, reflecting resilient business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies alongside supportive fiscal measures. These outlooks embed only modest recession risks, with labor-market data and consumer spending trends indicating above-trend expansion rather than contraction. Market-implied odds of 96% against negative growth therefore track the consensus baseline from official and analyst estimates. Tail risks remain low-probability but include escalation of trade tensions, sharper-than-expected labor-force contraction from immigration policy, or a sudden reversal in capital expenditures that could push quarterly readings negative.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$32,234Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Major institutions including the CBO project real GDP expanding 2.2% in 2026, with private forecasts from Vanguard, S&P Global, and Deloitte clustered around 1.8–2.3%, reflecting resilient business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies alongside supportive fiscal measures. These outlooks embed only modest recession risks, with labor-market data and consumer spending trends indicating above-trend expansion rather than contraction. Market-implied odds of 96% against negative growth therefore track the consensus baseline from official and analyst estimates. Tail risks remain low-probability but include escalation of trade tensions, sharper-than-expected labor-force contraction from immigration policy, or a sudden reversal in capital expenditures that could push quarterly readings negative.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$32,234Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Major institutions including the CBO project real GDP expanding 2.2% in 2026, with private forecasts from Vanguard, S&P Global, and Deloitte clustered around 1.8–2.3%, reflecting resilient business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies alongside supportive fiscal measures. These outlooks embed only modest recession risks, with labor-market data and consumer spending trends indicating above-trend expansion rather than contraction. Market-implied odds of 96% against negative growth therefore track the consensus baseline from official and analyst estimates. Tail risks remain low-probability but include escalation of trade tensions, sharper-than-expected labor-force contraction from immigration policy, or a sudden reversal in capital expenditures that could push quarterly readings negative.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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