Robust first-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 2.0 percent annualized, rebounding from the prior quarter’s 0.5 percent pace, has anchored trader sentiment against negative annual growth for the full year. Business fixed investment surged 10.4 percent, driven by AI-related equipment and structures spending, while consumer outlays and government outlays provided additional support. Consensus forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, and private economists now cluster between 2.0 percent and 2.5 percent for 2026, reflecting fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and easing oil-price pressures following recent geopolitical de-escalation. With unemployment holding near 4.3 percent and no Sahm Rule trigger observed, market-implied odds price a low probability of contraction, though the June FOMC decision and upcoming inflation releases remain key swing factors.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCrescita negativa del PIL nel 2026?
Crescita negativa del PIL nel 2026?
Sì
$26,508 Vol.
$26,508 Vol.
29 gen 2027
Sì
$26,508 Vol.
$26,508 Vol.
29 gen 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust first-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 2.0 percent annualized, rebounding from the prior quarter’s 0.5 percent pace, has anchored trader sentiment against negative annual growth for the full year. Business fixed investment surged 10.4 percent, driven by AI-related equipment and structures spending, while consumer outlays and government outlays provided additional support. Consensus forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, and private economists now cluster between 2.0 percent and 2.5 percent for 2026, reflecting fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and easing oil-price pressures following recent geopolitical de-escalation. With unemployment holding near 4.3 percent and no Sahm Rule trigger observed, market-implied odds price a low probability of contraction, though the June FOMC decision and upcoming inflation releases remain key swing factors.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$26,508Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust first-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 2.0 percent annualized, rebounding from the prior quarter’s 0.5 percent pace, has anchored trader sentiment against negative annual growth for the full year. Business fixed investment surged 10.4 percent, driven by AI-related equipment and structures spending, while consumer outlays and government outlays provided additional support. Consensus forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, and private economists now cluster between 2.0 percent and 2.5 percent for 2026, reflecting fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and easing oil-price pressures following recent geopolitical de-escalation. With unemployment holding near 4.3 percent and no Sahm Rule trigger observed, market-implied odds price a low probability of contraction, though the June FOMC decision and upcoming inflation releases remain key swing factors.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$26,508Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust first-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 2.0 percent annualized, rebounding from the prior quarter’s 0.5 percent pace, has anchored trader sentiment against negative annual growth for the full year. Business fixed investment surged 10.4 percent, driven by AI-related equipment and structures spending, while consumer outlays and government outlays provided additional support. Consensus forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, and private economists now cluster between 2.0 percent and 2.5 percent for 2026, reflecting fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and easing oil-price pressures following recent geopolitical de-escalation. With unemployment holding near 4.3 percent and no Sahm Rule trigger observed, market-implied odds price a low probability of contraction, though the June FOMC decision and upcoming inflation releases remain key swing factors.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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