Strong economic momentum through mid-2026 underpins the 96% market-implied probability that U.S. GDP will avoid contraction for the full year. Official releases show positive real GDP growth in the first two quarters, supported by resilient consumer spending, steady nonfarm payroll gains, and unemployment near historical lows. Forward-looking indicators, including ISM manufacturing and services readings plus corporate earnings trends, reinforce expectations for continued expansion rather than the sharp downturn needed to produce negative annual growth. With roughly four months remaining, tail-risk scenarios such as an abrupt escalation in trade tensions, a sudden financial-market shock, or an unexpectedly aggressive policy shift could still alter the trajectory, though current data and consensus forecasts leave limited room for reversal.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCrescita negativa del PIL nel 2026?
Crescita negativa del PIL nel 2026?
Sì
4% probabilità
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
28 gen 2027
Sì
4% probabilità
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
28 gen 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong economic momentum through mid-2026 underpins the 96% market-implied probability that U.S. GDP will avoid contraction for the full year. Official releases show positive real GDP growth in the first two quarters, supported by resilient consumer spending, steady nonfarm payroll gains, and unemployment near historical lows. Forward-looking indicators, including ISM manufacturing and services readings plus corporate earnings trends, reinforce expectations for continued expansion rather than the sharp downturn needed to produce negative annual growth. With roughly four months remaining, tail-risk scenarios such as an abrupt escalation in trade tensions, a sudden financial-market shock, or an unexpectedly aggressive policy shift could still alter the trajectory, though current data and consensus forecasts leave limited room for reversal.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$32,234Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong economic momentum through mid-2026 underpins the 96% market-implied probability that U.S. GDP will avoid contraction for the full year. Official releases show positive real GDP growth in the first two quarters, supported by resilient consumer spending, steady nonfarm payroll gains, and unemployment near historical lows. Forward-looking indicators, including ISM manufacturing and services readings plus corporate earnings trends, reinforce expectations for continued expansion rather than the sharp downturn needed to produce negative annual growth. With roughly four months remaining, tail-risk scenarios such as an abrupt escalation in trade tensions, a sudden financial-market shock, or an unexpectedly aggressive policy shift could still alter the trajectory, though current data and consensus forecasts leave limited room for reversal.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$32,234Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong economic momentum through mid-2026 underpins the 96% market-implied probability that U.S. GDP will avoid contraction for the full year. Official releases show positive real GDP growth in the first two quarters, supported by resilient consumer spending, steady nonfarm payroll gains, and unemployment near historical lows. Forward-looking indicators, including ISM manufacturing and services readings plus corporate earnings trends, reinforce expectations for continued expansion rather than the sharp downturn needed to produce negative annual growth. With roughly four months remaining, tail-risk scenarios such as an abrupt escalation in trade tensions, a sudden financial-market shock, or an unexpectedly aggressive policy shift could still alter the trajectory, though current data and consensus forecasts leave limited room for reversal.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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