**Kyriakos Mitsotakis leads trader consensus as the next Greek prime minister at 73.5% implied probability, reflecting New Democracy’s sustained poll lead near 30% and his status as incumbent heading into the scheduled 2027 parliamentary election.** Recent credit-rating upgrades by Moody’s (outlook to positive) and Scope Ratings (rating to BBB+), announced in mid-September 2026, have reinforced perceptions of economic stability and policy continuity, while government announcements at the Thessaloniki International Fair—including tax relief and support measures—have been positioned to address cost-of-living pressures ahead of the vote. Mitsotakis has publicly ruled out snap elections and continues active diplomacy, including a U.S. visit and meetings with the new American ambassador, underscoring Greece’s international profile. The opposition remains fragmented, with Alexis Tsipras’s ELAS party holding second place around 15–16% and PASOK near 11–13%; other listed figures trail far behind in both voting intention and “most suitable prime minister” surveys. This structure, combined with New Democracy’s path to a potential outright majority under current electoral rules, underpins the wide gap in market pricing. Resolution hinges on the outcome of the next general election, expected in spring 2027 unless Parliament is dissolved earlier.