**Multiple partial outages already logged in early June 2026 have positioned the 4+ outage days outcome as the market leader at 51.5% implied probability.** OpenAI’s status page records disruptions on several days including June 1–3, 6–9, and 11, with incidents such as elevated 431 errors and service availability issues affecting free and paid tiers. These brief but countable events align with ChatGPT’s pattern of intermittent latency or partial downtime even when overall uptime remains high (99.83% for the ChatGPT service through mid-June). Traders view the current tally as sufficient to make four or more days the baseline expectation, especially given OpenAI’s rapid scaling of large language model traffic and periodic infrastructure strain. The 2-day (27.0%) and 3-day (18.5%) options trail because additional incidents would be needed to reach them, while sub-2 days sits near zero. No major new disruptions have surfaced since June 11, but the remaining half of the month leaves room for further volatility before resolution.