Mayes Middleton secured the Republican nomination after defeating U.S. Rep. Chip Roy in the May 2026 primary runoff, positioning him as the clear frontrunner to succeed Ken Paxton in the open-seat race. Texas's longstanding Republican advantage in statewide contests supports the elevated implied probability for the GOP nominee ahead of the November 3 general election. Recent polling indicates a tighter contest than historical norms, with Middleton at 40% and Democrat Nathan Johnson at 35% among registered voters, alongside over 20% undecided. Johnson's Democratic primary runoff win and the race's competitive dynamics reflect broader state trends, including softening support for some Republican figures, though the structural partisan lean continues to shape trader assessments of likely outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni del procuratore generale del Texas

Mayes Middleton (R)
81%

Nathan Johnson (D)
18%

Mayes Middleton (R)
81%

Nathan Johnson (D)
18%
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the election according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election.
Mercato aperto: Sep 4, 2026, 1:50 PM ET
Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the election according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election.
Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...Mayes Middleton secured the Republican nomination after defeating U.S. Rep. Chip Roy in the May 2026 primary runoff, positioning him as the clear frontrunner to succeed Ken Paxton in the open-seat race. Texas's longstanding Republican advantage in statewide contests supports the elevated implied probability for the GOP nominee ahead of the November 3 general election. Recent polling indicates a tighter contest than historical norms, with Middleton at 40% and Democrat Nathan Johnson at 35% among registered voters, alongside over 20% undecided. Johnson's Democratic primary runoff win and the race's competitive dynamics reflect broader state trends, including softening support for some Republican figures, though the structural partisan lean continues to shape trader assessments of likely outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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