Recent polling averages showing James Talarico holding narrow leads or statistical ties over Ken Paxton have anchored trader consensus near even odds in this Texas U.S. Senate contest. Paxton's May 2026 Republican primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn, bolstered by a late endorsement from President Trump, secured the nomination but left him underperforming among some Republican and independent voters in general-election surveys. Talarico's stronger-than-expected margins with moderates, non-college-educated voters, and key demographic blocs, combined with a substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $65 million, have sustained Democratic momentum in a state where no Democrat has won a Senate seat since 1988. The contest remains closely matched ahead of scheduled debates and additional voter surveys, with shifts in turnout patterns or messaging on core issues such as the economy and border security most likely to widen the gap before November 3.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni del Senato del Texas
Vincitore delle elezioni del Senato del Texas
$754,540 Vol.
$754,540 Vol.
3 nov 2026
James Talarico (D)
52%
Ken Paxton (R)
48%
$754,540 Vol.
$754,540 Vol.
3 nov 2026
James Talarico (D)
$360,952 Vol.
52%
Ken Paxton (R)
$393,588 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Recent polling averages showing James Talarico holding narrow leads or statistical ties over Ken Paxton have anchored trader consensus near even odds in this Texas U.S. Senate contest. Paxton's May 2026 Republican primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn, bolstered by a late endorsement from President Trump, secured the nomination but left him underperforming among some Republican and independent voters in general-election surveys. Talarico's stronger-than-expected margins with moderates, non-college-educated voters, and key demographic blocs, combined with a substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $65 million, have sustained Democratic momentum in a state where no Democrat has won a Senate seat since 1988. The contest remains closely matched ahead of scheduled debates and additional voter surveys, with shifts in turnout patterns or messaging on core issues such as the economy and border security most likely to widen the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercato aperto: Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
Volume
$754,540Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Recent polling averages showing James Talarico holding narrow leads or statistical ties over Ken Paxton have anchored trader consensus near even odds in this Texas U.S. Senate contest. Paxton's May 2026 Republican primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn, bolstered by a late endorsement from President Trump, secured the nomination but left him underperforming among some Republican and independent voters in general-election surveys. Talarico's stronger-than-expected margins with moderates, non-college-educated voters, and key demographic blocs, combined with a substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $65 million, have sustained Democratic momentum in a state where no Democrat has won a Senate seat since 1988. The contest remains closely matched ahead of scheduled debates and additional voter surveys, with shifts in turnout patterns or messaging on core issues such as the economy and border security most likely to widen the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$754,540Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling averages showing James Talarico holding narrow leads or statistical ties over Ken Paxton have anchored trader consensus near even odds in this Texas U.S. Senate contest. Paxton's May 2026 Republican primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn, bolstered by a late endorsement from President Trump, secured the nomination but left him underperforming among some Republican and independent voters in general-election surveys. Talarico's stronger-than-expected margins with moderates, non-college-educated voters, and key demographic blocs, combined with a substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $65 million, have sustained Democratic momentum in a state where no Democrat has won a Senate seat since 1988. The contest remains closely matched ahead of scheduled debates and additional voter surveys, with shifts in turnout patterns or messaging on core issues such as the economy and border security most likely to widen the gap before November 3.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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