Trader consensus shows a highly fragmented field for the third-best AI agent lab by end of August, with Moonshot holding the highest named implied probability at 48.5% amid broad uncertainty reflected in multiple outcomes clustered near 50%. Recent releases of agent frameworks and tool-use benchmarks from Chinese labs like MiniMax, ByteDance, and Baidu have driven sentiment toward these players, highlighting competitive edges in scalable multi-agent systems and regional data advantages over slower-moving Western counterparts. Established leaders such as OpenAI and Google carry near-zero odds, consistent with market views that they will occupy top spots. Differentiating factors include demonstrated performance on agent-specific evaluations, developer ecosystem growth, and integration depth, with any late-August capability demonstrations or third-party rankings poised to shift probabilities quickly in this closely contested environment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTerzo miglior AI Agent Lab alla fine di agosto?
Terzo miglior AI Agent Lab alla fine di agosto?
Moonshot 49%
Alibaba 43%
Mistral 43%
MiniMax 26%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 ago 2026
Moonshot
53%
Alibaba
43%
Mistral
43%
MiniMax
26%
Baidu
23%
ByteDance
22%
Xiaomi
22%
Z.ai
18%
Anthropic
15%
SpaceXAI
5%
Meta
3%
Nvidia
1%
OpenAI
1%
Meituan
1%
Amazon
1%
Microsoft
1%
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot 49%
Alibaba 43%
Mistral 43%
MiniMax 26%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 ago 2026
Moonshot
$279 Vol.
53%
Alibaba
$122 Vol.
43%
Mistral
$133 Vol.
43%
MiniMax
$170 Vol.
26%
Baidu
$181 Vol.
23%
ByteDance
$131 Vol.
22%
Xiaomi
$166 Vol.
22%
Z.ai
$120 Vol.
18%
Anthropic
$211 Vol.
15%
SpaceXAI
$118 Vol.
5%
Meta
$117 Vol.
3%
Nvidia
$152 Vol.
1%
OpenAI
$140 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$74 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$175 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$155 Vol.
1%
$20 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$20 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus shows a highly fragmented field for the third-best AI agent lab by end of August, with Moonshot holding the highest named implied probability at 48.5% amid broad uncertainty reflected in multiple outcomes clustered near 50%. Recent releases of agent frameworks and tool-use benchmarks from Chinese labs like MiniMax, ByteDance, and Baidu have driven sentiment toward these players, highlighting competitive edges in scalable multi-agent systems and regional data advantages over slower-moving Western counterparts. Established leaders such as OpenAI and Google carry near-zero odds, consistent with market views that they will occupy top spots. Differentiating factors include demonstrated performance on agent-specific evaluations, developer ecosystem growth, and integration depth, with any late-August capability demonstrations or third-party rankings poised to shift probabilities quickly in this closely contested environment.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercato aperto: Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$2,484Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus shows a highly fragmented field for the third-best AI agent lab by end of August, with Moonshot holding the highest named implied probability at 48.5% amid broad uncertainty reflected in multiple outcomes clustered near 50%. Recent releases of agent frameworks and tool-use benchmarks from Chinese labs like MiniMax, ByteDance, and Baidu have driven sentiment toward these players, highlighting competitive edges in scalable multi-agent systems and regional data advantages over slower-moving Western counterparts. Established leaders such as OpenAI and Google carry near-zero odds, consistent with market views that they will occupy top spots. Differentiating factors include demonstrated performance on agent-specific evaluations, developer ecosystem growth, and integration depth, with any late-August capability demonstrations or third-party rankings poised to shift probabilities quickly in this closely contested environment.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$2,484Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus shows a highly fragmented field for the third-best AI agent lab by end of August, with Moonshot holding the highest named implied probability at 48.5% amid broad uncertainty reflected in multiple outcomes clustered near 50%. Recent releases of agent frameworks and tool-use benchmarks from Chinese labs like MiniMax, ByteDance, and Baidu have driven sentiment toward these players, highlighting competitive edges in scalable multi-agent systems and regional data advantages over slower-moving Western counterparts. Established leaders such as OpenAI and Google carry near-zero odds, consistent with market views that they will occupy top spots. Differentiating factors include demonstrated performance on agent-specific evaluations, developer ecosystem growth, and integration depth, with any late-August capability demonstrations or third-party rankings poised to shift probabilities quickly in this closely contested environment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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