Intense competition among frontier labs has kept trader sentiment evenly split on the second-best AI agent developer by end of August, with multiple outcomes clustered near 50% implied probability. Chinese labs including Moonshot, DeepSeek, and Z.ai have driven recent momentum through July releases like Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and DeepSeek V4, which deliver near-frontier agentic performance on benchmarks such as tool-use and multi-step reasoning at significantly lower cost than U.S. counterparts. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6-based agentic systems and Anthropic’s Claude models continue to lead select evaluations like SWE-bench and GAIA, yet the rapid iteration and open-weight advantages from Chinese providers have prevented any single lab from pulling ahead. With the resolution window closing soon, fresh benchmark updates or capability demonstrations could quickly shift the tight consensus.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSecondo miglior AI Agent Lab a fine agosto?
Secondo miglior AI Agent Lab a fine agosto?
OpenAI 49%
Moonshot 47%
DeepSeek 27%
Anthropic 26%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 ago 2026
OpenAI
49%
Moonshot
47%
DeepSeek
27%
Anthropic
26%
Z.ai
26%
Meta
26%
26%
Nvidia
26%
ByteDance
26%
Baidu
26%
Amazon
26%
Mistral
26%
Meituan
26%
Microsoft
26%
SpaceXAI
26%
Alibaba
24%
Xiaomi
24%
MiniMax
23%
OpenAI 49%
Moonshot 47%
DeepSeek 27%
Anthropic 26%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 ago 2026
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
49%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
47%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
27%
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
26%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
26%
Meta
$0 Vol.
26%
$0 Vol.
26%
Nvidia
$5 Vol.
26%
ByteDance
$5 Vol.
26%
Baidu
$5 Vol.
26%
Amazon
$5 Vol.
26%
Mistral
$5 Vol.
26%
Meituan
$5 Vol.
26%
Microsoft
$14 Vol.
26%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
26%
Alibaba
$9 Vol.
24%
Xiaomi
$13 Vol.
24%
MiniMax
$10 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Intense competition among frontier labs has kept trader sentiment evenly split on the second-best AI agent developer by end of August, with multiple outcomes clustered near 50% implied probability. Chinese labs including Moonshot, DeepSeek, and Z.ai have driven recent momentum through July releases like Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and DeepSeek V4, which deliver near-frontier agentic performance on benchmarks such as tool-use and multi-step reasoning at significantly lower cost than U.S. counterparts. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6-based agentic systems and Anthropic’s Claude models continue to lead select evaluations like SWE-bench and GAIA, yet the rapid iteration and open-weight advantages from Chinese providers have prevented any single lab from pulling ahead. With the resolution window closing soon, fresh benchmark updates or capability demonstrations could quickly shift the tight consensus.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercato aperto: Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$76Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agentResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Intense competition among frontier labs has kept trader sentiment evenly split on the second-best AI agent developer by end of August, with multiple outcomes clustered near 50% implied probability. Chinese labs including Moonshot, DeepSeek, and Z.ai have driven recent momentum through July releases like Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and DeepSeek V4, which deliver near-frontier agentic performance on benchmarks such as tool-use and multi-step reasoning at significantly lower cost than U.S. counterparts. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6-based agentic systems and Anthropic’s Claude models continue to lead select evaluations like SWE-bench and GAIA, yet the rapid iteration and open-weight advantages from Chinese providers have prevented any single lab from pulling ahead. With the resolution window closing soon, fresh benchmark updates or capability demonstrations could quickly shift the tight consensus.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$76Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agentResolver
0x69c47De9D...Intense competition among frontier labs has kept trader sentiment evenly split on the second-best AI agent developer by end of August, with multiple outcomes clustered near 50% implied probability. Chinese labs including Moonshot, DeepSeek, and Z.ai have driven recent momentum through July releases like Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and DeepSeek V4, which deliver near-frontier agentic performance on benchmarks such as tool-use and multi-step reasoning at significantly lower cost than U.S. counterparts. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6-based agentic systems and Anthropic’s Claude models continue to lead select evaluations like SWE-bench and GAIA, yet the rapid iteration and open-weight advantages from Chinese providers have prevented any single lab from pulling ahead. With the resolution window closing soon, fresh benchmark updates or capability demonstrations could quickly shift the tight consensus.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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