Republican majorities in Congress following the 2024 elections have kept the implied probability of President Trump facing impeachment and removal before 2028 at 18.3%. Advancing articles through the House requires a simple majority, but Senate conviction demands a two-thirds supermajority that current partisan alignment makes unlikely absent major shifts. The November 2026 midterms have not produced the necessary gains for opposition forces to overcome these thresholds. Historical removal cases remain rare and typically require cross-aisle consensus that remains absent amid ongoing policy disputes and institutional checks. Traders price this structural barrier into the elevated likelihood that no such outcome materializes during the term.