Republican congressional majorities have blocked advancement of multiple Democratic impeachment resolutions and 25th Amendment proposals introduced since early 2026, including measures tied to foreign policy statements on Iran. With no bipartisan support emerging for removal proceedings, traders assign high probability that President Trump completes his term through at least the end of 2026. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 could alter House control, yet any subsequent legislative steps would still require Senate conviction, a threshold not met in prior attempts. Recent public statements from Democratic leaders emphasize messaging on domestic issues over immediate removal efforts, reinforcing the current market consensus reflected in the 90.5% implied probability on the "No" outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$8,522,511 Vol.
$8,522,511 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$8,522,511 Vol.
$8,522,511 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Republican congressional majorities have blocked advancement of multiple Democratic impeachment resolutions and 25th Amendment proposals introduced since early 2026, including measures tied to foreign policy statements on Iran. With no bipartisan support emerging for removal proceedings, traders assign high probability that President Trump completes his term through at least the end of 2026. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 could alter House control, yet any subsequent legislative steps would still require Senate conviction, a threshold not met in prior attempts. Recent public statements from Democratic leaders emphasize messaging on domestic issues over immediate removal efforts, reinforcing the current market consensus reflected in the 90.5% implied probability on the "No" outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$8,522,511Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Republican congressional majorities have blocked advancement of multiple Democratic impeachment resolutions and 25th Amendment proposals introduced since early 2026, including measures tied to foreign policy statements on Iran. With no bipartisan support emerging for removal proceedings, traders assign high probability that President Trump completes his term through at least the end of 2026. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 could alter House control, yet any subsequent legislative steps would still require Senate conviction, a threshold not met in prior attempts. Recent public statements from Democratic leaders emphasize messaging on domestic issues over immediate removal efforts, reinforcing the current market consensus reflected in the 90.5% implied probability on the "No" outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,522,511Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Republican congressional majorities have blocked advancement of multiple Democratic impeachment resolutions and 25th Amendment proposals introduced since early 2026, including measures tied to foreign policy statements on Iran. With no bipartisan support emerging for removal proceedings, traders assign high probability that President Trump completes his term through at least the end of 2026. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 could alter House control, yet any subsequent legislative steps would still require Senate conviction, a threshold not met in prior attempts. Recent public statements from Democratic leaders emphasize messaging on domestic issues over immediate removal efforts, reinforcing the current market consensus reflected in the 90.5% implied probability on the "No" outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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