Incumbent Republican Lance Gooden defeated Democratic challenger Chelsey Hockett in the November 3, 2026, general election for Texas’s 5th congressional district, securing approximately 51.5% of the vote to 48.5% for a margin near 2.9 points with 99% of ballots counted. Traders have priced a Republican 0-5% victory at 91.4% because the outcome aligns with final unofficial tallies showing Gooden ahead by roughly 7,423 votes. The race tightened relative to prior presidential benchmarks after new district lines and stronger Democratic performance in suburban Dallas County, though rural counties delivered decisive Republican margins. Full certification and any late provisional or mail ballot adjustments remain the primary variables that could still shift the exact margin within the narrow band.