US Treasury sanctions relief on Iranian oil sales remains unlikely in the near term following the July 7, 2026 revocation of General License X, which had temporarily authorized dollar-denominated exports of crude, petrochemicals, and petroleum products through August 21. The revocation stemmed from Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and breaches of the June memorandum of understanding, prompting reinstatement of the US naval blockade. Iranian exports have since collapsed to a fraction of pre-war levels, with no supertanker loadings reported at Kharg Island for weeks and onshore inventories drawing down sharply. This supply constriction supports tighter global crude balances and elevated benchmarks such as Brent near recent trading ranges, while OFAC continues targeting shadow fleet vessels. Trader consensus on reissuance hinges on verifiable progress in nuclear inspections, Hormuz transit guarantees, or bilateral talks, with resolution tied to official Treasury or OFAC actions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$361,166 Vol.
30 set 2026
30 settembre
9%
31 ottobre
32%
$361,166 Vol.
30 settembre
$22,156 Vol.
9%
31 ottobre
$8,756 Vol.
32%
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.US Treasury sanctions relief on Iranian oil sales remains unlikely in the near term following the July 7, 2026 revocation of General License X, which had temporarily authorized dollar-denominated exports of crude, petrochemicals, and petroleum products through August 21. The revocation stemmed from Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and breaches of the June memorandum of understanding, prompting reinstatement of the US naval blockade. Iranian exports have since collapsed to a fraction of pre-war levels, with no supertanker loadings reported at Kharg Island for weeks and onshore inventories drawing down sharply. This supply constriction supports tighter global crude balances and elevated benchmarks such as Brent near recent trading ranges, while OFAC continues targeting shadow fleet vessels. Trader consensus on reissuance hinges on verifiable progress in nuclear inspections, Hormuz transit guarantees, or bilateral talks, with resolution tied to official Treasury or OFAC actions.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Mercato aperto: Aug 26, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
Volume
$361,166Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 26, 2026, 10:59 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.US Treasury sanctions relief on Iranian oil sales remains unlikely in the near term following the July 7, 2026 revocation of General License X, which had temporarily authorized dollar-denominated exports of crude, petrochemicals, and petroleum products through August 21. The revocation stemmed from Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and breaches of the June memorandum of understanding, prompting reinstatement of the US naval blockade. Iranian exports have since collapsed to a fraction of pre-war levels, with no supertanker loadings reported at Kharg Island for weeks and onshore inventories drawing down sharply. This supply constriction supports tighter global crude balances and elevated benchmarks such as Brent near recent trading ranges, while OFAC continues targeting shadow fleet vessels. Trader consensus on reissuance hinges on verifiable progress in nuclear inspections, Hormuz transit guarantees, or bilateral talks, with resolution tied to official Treasury or OFAC actions.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Volume
$361,166Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 26, 2026, 10:59 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...US Treasury sanctions relief on Iranian oil sales remains unlikely in the near term following the July 7, 2026 revocation of General License X, which had temporarily authorized dollar-denominated exports of crude, petrochemicals, and petroleum products through August 21. The revocation stemmed from Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and breaches of the June memorandum of understanding, prompting reinstatement of the US naval blockade. Iranian exports have since collapsed to a fraction of pre-war levels, with no supertanker loadings reported at Kharg Island for weeks and onshore inventories drawing down sharply. This supply constriction supports tighter global crude balances and elevated benchmarks such as Brent near recent trading ranges, while OFAC continues targeting shadow fleet vessels. Trader consensus on reissuance hinges on verifiable progress in nuclear inspections, Hormuz transit guarantees, or bilateral talks, with resolution tied to official Treasury or OFAC actions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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