**US-China tariff discussions center on the framework established during the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, which created a U.S.-China Board of Trade to explore reciprocal reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods per side at most-favored-nation rates or lower.** The existing tariff truce, including suspensions of heightened reciprocal duties, extends until November 10, 2026, following the earlier Kuala Lumpur arrangement. In July 2026 the United States implemented 12.5 percent replacement Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods, which Beijing indicated fell within the negotiated 20 percent cap. Public comment on tariff relief under the new board was solicited in June, but no comprehensive agreement implementing broader cuts has been finalized. Recent weeks have seen continued frictions, including additional U.S. entity-list actions, Chinese retaliatory measures on specific exports, and separate disputes over drones and forced-labor enforcement. With only days remaining until the August 31 deadline and no announced breakthrough, trader consensus reflected in the 93.5 percent “No” probability aligns with the absence of a completed deal within the narrow window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato7% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 ago 2026
7% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 ago 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.**US-China tariff discussions center on the framework established during the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, which created a U.S.-China Board of Trade to explore reciprocal reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods per side at most-favored-nation rates or lower.** The existing tariff truce, including suspensions of heightened reciprocal duties, extends until November 10, 2026, following the earlier Kuala Lumpur arrangement. In July 2026 the United States implemented 12.5 percent replacement Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods, which Beijing indicated fell within the negotiated 20 percent cap.
Public comment on tariff relief under the new board was solicited in June, but no comprehensive agreement implementing broader cuts has been finalized. Recent weeks have seen continued frictions, including additional U.S. entity-list actions, Chinese retaliatory measures on specific exports, and separate disputes over drones and forced-labor enforcement. With only days remaining until the August 31 deadline and no announced breakthrough, trader consensus reflected in the 93.5 percent “No” probability aligns with the absence of a completed deal within the narrow window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercato aperto: Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ET
Volume
$2,675Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.**US-China tariff discussions center on the framework established during the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, which created a U.S.-China Board of Trade to explore reciprocal reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods per side at most-favored-nation rates or lower.** The existing tariff truce, including suspensions of heightened reciprocal duties, extends until November 10, 2026, following the earlier Kuala Lumpur arrangement. In July 2026 the United States implemented 12.5 percent replacement Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods, which Beijing indicated fell within the negotiated 20 percent cap.
Public comment on tariff relief under the new board was solicited in June, but no comprehensive agreement implementing broader cuts has been finalized. Recent weeks have seen continued frictions, including additional U.S. entity-list actions, Chinese retaliatory measures on specific exports, and separate disputes over drones and forced-labor enforcement. With only days remaining until the August 31 deadline and no announced breakthrough, trader consensus reflected in the 93.5 percent “No” probability aligns with the absence of a completed deal within the narrow window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$2,675Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US-China tariff discussions center on the framework established during the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, which created a U.S.-China Board of Trade to explore reciprocal reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods per side at most-favored-nation rates or lower.** The existing tariff truce, including suspensions of heightened reciprocal duties, extends until November 10, 2026, following the earlier Kuala Lumpur arrangement. In July 2026 the United States implemented 12.5 percent replacement Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods, which Beijing indicated fell within the negotiated 20 percent cap. Public comment on tariff relief under the new board was solicited in June, but no comprehensive agreement implementing broader cuts has been finalized. Recent weeks have seen continued frictions, including additional U.S. entity-list actions, Chinese retaliatory measures on specific exports, and separate disputes over drones and forced-labor enforcement. With only days remaining until the August 31 deadline and no announced breakthrough, trader consensus reflected in the 93.5 percent “No” probability aligns with the absence of a completed deal within the narrow window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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