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Clima E Scienza·Weather

Come si chiamerà il primo uragano nell'Atlantico per la stagione degli uragani 2026?

icon for Come si chiamerà il primo uragano nell'Atlantico per la stagione degli uragani 2026?
Clima E Scienza·Weather

Come si chiamerà il primo uragano nell'Atlantico per la stagione degli uragani 2026?

Dolly 41%

Edouard 25%

Fay 21%

Isaias 7.1%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Dolly 41%

Edouard 25%

Fay 21%

Isaias 7.1%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Cristobal

$1,667 Vol.

2%

Dolly

$383 Vol.

41%

Edouard

$1,073 Vol.

25%

Fay

$514 Vol.

17%

Gonzalo

$472 Vol.

11%

Hanna

$98 Vol.

5%

Isaias

$350 Vol.

7%

Josephine

$55 Vol.

5%

Kyle

$94 Vol.

3%

Leah

$59 Vol.

4%

Marco

$111 Vol.

5%

Nana

$51 Vol.

5%

Omar

$67 Vol.

5%

Paulette

$71 Vol.

5%

Rene

$63 Vol.

5%

Sally

$131 Vol.

3%

Teddy

$63 Vol.

5%

Vicky

$90 Vol.

4%

Wilfred

$118 Vol.

4%

Altro

$63 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The absence of any Atlantic hurricanes through mid-August 2026, following only Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and the recently dissipated Cristobal, drives market-implied odds favoring Dolly at 41%. NOAA’s updated outlook for a below-normal season (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes) reflects suppressed activity linked to atmospheric conditions that limit rapid intensification. With peak months ahead, the next named systems—Dolly, Edouard, Fay, and Gonzalo—face the highest near-term probability of reaching sustained winds of 74 mph or greater on the Saffir-Simpson scale, especially if steering patterns or sea-surface temperatures allow development before later names form. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center continue issuing regular model updates that traders monitor for shifts in genesis timing and intensity potential.

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.

All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Volume
$5,595
Data di fine
2 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The absence of any Atlantic hurricanes through mid-August 2026, following only Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and the recently dissipated Cristobal, drives market-implied odds favoring Dolly at 41%. NOAA’s updated outlook for a below-normal season (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes) reflects suppressed activity linked to atmospheric conditions that limit rapid intensification. With peak months ahead, the next named systems—Dolly, Edouard, Fay, and Gonzalo—face the highest near-term probability of reaching sustained winds of 74 mph or greater on the Saffir-Simpson scale, especially if steering patterns or sea-surface temperatures allow development before later names form. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center continue issuing regular model updates that traders monitor for shifts in genesis timing and intensity potential.

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.

All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Volume
$5,595
Data di fine
2 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.

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Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"Come si chiamerà il primo uragano nell'Atlantico per la stagione degli uragani 2026?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 20 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Dolly" a 41%, seguito da "Edouard" a 25%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 41¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 41% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Come si chiamerà il primo uragano nell'Atlantico per la stagione degli uragani 2026?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Jul 24, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Come si chiamerà il primo uragano nell'Atlantico per la stagione degli uragani 2026?", esplora i 20 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Come si chiamerà il primo uragano nell'Atlantico per la stagione degli uragani 2026?" è "Dolly" a 41%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 41% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Edouard" a 25%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Come si chiamerà il primo uragano nell'Atlantico per la stagione degli uragani 2026?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.