The ongoing 2026 Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo serves as the dominant catalyst shaping trader sentiment, with rapid early growth across multiple provinces creating strong consensus around confirmed cases there while heightening scrutiny on cross-border risks. Limited spillovers to Uganda and a single imported case in France have already locked in those markets, but ongoing insecurity, population movements, and gaps in contact tracing keep attention on potential expansions to neighbors like South Sudan or beyond. Recent health worker vaccination efforts using the Ervebo shot and monitoring for effectiveness against this strain represent key upcoming catalysts, alongside any new international detections before year-end. The situation remains fluid given the strain's distinct profile and historical patterns of contained versus exported transmission.