**Marine layer persistence and onshore flow are anchoring trader expectations for San Francisco’s September 20 high temperature in the mid-60s.** Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance show mostly cloudy to overcast conditions with west-southwest winds of 7–15 mph limiting daytime heating, producing projected highs near 64–66°F—well below the 1991–2020 average of 70.7°F for the date. Recent model runs have converged on this cooler regime without signs of offshore flow or clearing that would push readings into the upper 60s or 70s. The market’s heaviest volume on the 66–67°F bin (36.5%) followed by 64–65°F (24.5%) reflects this consensus, while lower probabilities on 68°F+ outcomes capture residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any late-day clearing. Updated NWS point forecasts and morning observations on the 20th will provide the final inputs for resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a San Francisco il 20 settembre?
La temperatura più alta a San Francisco il 20 settembre?
66-67°F 35%
64-65°F 24%
68-69°F 23%
70-71°F 11%
NUOVO
NUOVO
20 set 2026
59°F o inferiore
1%
60-61°F
3%
62-63°F
6%
64-65°F
24%
66-67°F
35%
68-69°F
23%
70-71°F
11%
72-73°F
2%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
2%
78°F o superiore
1%
66-67°F 35%
64-65°F 24%
68-69°F 23%
70-71°F 11%
NUOVO
NUOVO
20 set 2026
59°F o inferiore
$124 Vol.
1%
60-61°F
$10 Vol.
3%
62-63°F
$179 Vol.
6%
64-65°F
$270 Vol.
24%
66-67°F
$101 Vol.
35%
68-69°F
$226 Vol.
23%
70-71°F
$28 Vol.
11%
72-73°F
$492 Vol.
2%
74-75°F
$69 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$10 Vol.
2%
78°F o superiore
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Marine layer persistence and onshore flow are anchoring trader expectations for San Francisco’s September 20 high temperature in the mid-60s.** Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance show mostly cloudy to overcast conditions with west-southwest winds of 7–15 mph limiting daytime heating, producing projected highs near 64–66°F—well below the 1991–2020 average of 70.7°F for the date. Recent model runs have converged on this cooler regime without signs of offshore flow or clearing that would push readings into the upper 60s or 70s. The market’s heaviest volume on the 66–67°F bin (36.5%) followed by 64–65°F (24.5%) reflects this consensus, while lower probabilities on 68°F+ outcomes capture residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any late-day clearing. Updated NWS point forecasts and morning observations on the 20th will provide the final inputs for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 18, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,518Data di fine
20 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 18, 2026, 7:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Marine layer persistence and onshore flow are anchoring trader expectations for San Francisco’s September 20 high temperature in the mid-60s.** Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance show mostly cloudy to overcast conditions with west-southwest winds of 7–15 mph limiting daytime heating, producing projected highs near 64–66°F—well below the 1991–2020 average of 70.7°F for the date. Recent model runs have converged on this cooler regime without signs of offshore flow or clearing that would push readings into the upper 60s or 70s. The market’s heaviest volume on the 66–67°F bin (36.5%) followed by 64–65°F (24.5%) reflects this consensus, while lower probabilities on 68°F+ outcomes capture residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any late-day clearing. Updated NWS point forecasts and morning observations on the 20th will provide the final inputs for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,518Data di fine
20 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 18, 2026, 7:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Marine layer persistence and onshore flow are anchoring trader expectations for San Francisco’s September 20 high temperature in the mid-60s.** Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance show mostly cloudy to overcast conditions with west-southwest winds of 7–15 mph limiting daytime heating, producing projected highs near 64–66°F—well below the 1991–2020 average of 70.7°F for the date. Recent model runs have converged on this cooler regime without signs of offshore flow or clearing that would push readings into the upper 60s or 70s. The market’s heaviest volume on the 66–67°F bin (36.5%) followed by 64–65°F (24.5%) reflects this consensus, while lower probabilities on 68°F+ outcomes capture residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any late-day clearing. Updated NWS point forecasts and morning observations on the 20th will provide the final inputs for resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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