Multiple high-profile officials in demanding roles face ongoing scrutiny amid recent cabinet turnover, including the ousters of Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer plus Tulsi Gabbard’s planned June 2026 exit as director of national intelligence. Susie Wiles as chief of staff, Pete Hegseth at Defense, Mike Waltz in a national security post, and John Ratcliffe at the CIA lead the market because these positions involve intense policy execution, interagency coordination, and public accountability pressures. The narrow spread among top contenders reflects trader assessments of comparable risks from performance reviews, Senate dynamics, and White House staffing decisions, with separation likely to emerge from new announcements, confirmation votes, or shifts in administration priorities before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLee Zeldin 40%
Mike Waltz 32.2%
Howard Lutnick 30%
John Ratcliffe 29.6%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
Lee Zeldin
40%
Mike Waltz
32%
Howard Lutnick
30%
John Ratcliffe
30%
Linda McMahon
19%
Jamieson Greer
19%
Russell T. Vought
18%
None before 2027
16%
Sean Duffy
19%
Scott Bessent
26%
Kelly Loeffler
6%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
5%
Marco Rubio
5%
Doug Collins
5%
J.D. Vance
5%
Brooke Rollins
15%
Chris Wright
4%
Scott Turner
2%
Pete Hegseth
-
Doug Burgum
-
Susie Wiles
37%
Lee Zeldin 40%
Mike Waltz 32.2%
Howard Lutnick 30%
John Ratcliffe 29.6%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
Lee Zeldin
$132 Vol.
40%
Mike Waltz
$126 Vol.
32%
Howard Lutnick
$250 Vol.
30%
John Ratcliffe
$115 Vol.
30%
Linda McMahon
$209 Vol.
19%
Jamieson Greer
$80 Vol.
19%
Russell T. Vought
$150 Vol.
18%
None before 2027
$226 Vol.
16%
Sean Duffy
$162 Vol.
19%
Scott Bessent
$469 Vol.
26%
Kelly Loeffler
$308 Vol.
6%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$101 Vol.
5%
Marco Rubio
$75 Vol.
5%
Doug Collins
$76 Vol.
5%
J.D. Vance
$171 Vol.
5%
Brooke Rollins
$230 Vol.
15%
Chris Wright
$132 Vol.
4%
Scott Turner
$80 Vol.
2%
Pete Hegseth
$118 Vol.
-
Doug Burgum
$171 Vol.
-
Susie Wiles
$227 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Multiple high-profile officials in demanding roles face ongoing scrutiny amid recent cabinet turnover, including the ousters of Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer plus Tulsi Gabbard’s planned June 2026 exit as director of national intelligence. Susie Wiles as chief of staff, Pete Hegseth at Defense, Mike Waltz in a national security post, and John Ratcliffe at the CIA lead the market because these positions involve intense policy execution, interagency coordination, and public accountability pressures. The narrow spread among top contenders reflects trader assessments of comparable risks from performance reviews, Senate dynamics, and White House staffing decisions, with separation likely to emerge from new announcements, confirmation votes, or shifts in administration priorities before 2027.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Mercato aperto: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$3,607Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Multiple high-profile officials in demanding roles face ongoing scrutiny amid recent cabinet turnover, including the ousters of Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer plus Tulsi Gabbard’s planned June 2026 exit as director of national intelligence. Susie Wiles as chief of staff, Pete Hegseth at Defense, Mike Waltz in a national security post, and John Ratcliffe at the CIA lead the market because these positions involve intense policy execution, interagency coordination, and public accountability pressures. The narrow spread among top contenders reflects trader assessments of comparable risks from performance reviews, Senate dynamics, and White House staffing decisions, with separation likely to emerge from new announcements, confirmation votes, or shifts in administration priorities before 2027.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$3,607Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Multiple high-profile officials in demanding roles face ongoing scrutiny amid recent cabinet turnover, including the ousters of Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer plus Tulsi Gabbard’s planned June 2026 exit as director of national intelligence. Susie Wiles as chief of staff, Pete Hegseth at Defense, Mike Waltz in a national security post, and John Ratcliffe at the CIA lead the market because these positions involve intense policy execution, interagency coordination, and public accountability pressures. The narrow spread among top contenders reflects trader assessments of comparable risks from performance reviews, Senate dynamics, and White House staffing decisions, with separation likely to emerge from new announcements, confirmation votes, or shifts in administration priorities before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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