Apple's established annual smartphone release cadence drives the 98.3% market-implied odds that the iPhone 18 will launch in 2026. The company has maintained a consistent September hardware refresh cycle for its flagship lineup for over a decade, supported by mature supply chains and developer ecosystems that align around predictable timelines. Recent component sourcing patterns and industry reporting reinforce expectations of a standard upgrade featuring incremental processor and camera improvements. While trader consensus reflects this strong precedent, realistic disruptions such as major supply constraints, regulatory delays in key markets, or a strategic shift to a longer development cycle for advanced features could still alter the outcome, though such scenarios remain low-probability given historical execution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoApple rilascerà iPhone 18 nel 2026?
Apple rilascerà iPhone 18 nel 2026?
98% probabilità
$172,877 Vol.
$172,877 Vol.
31 dic 2026
98% probabilità
$172,877 Vol.
$172,877 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual smartphone release cadence drives the 98.3% market-implied odds that the iPhone 18 will launch in 2026. The company has maintained a consistent September hardware refresh cycle for its flagship lineup for over a decade, supported by mature supply chains and developer ecosystems that align around predictable timelines. Recent component sourcing patterns and industry reporting reinforce expectations of a standard upgrade featuring incremental processor and camera improvements. While trader consensus reflects this strong precedent, realistic disruptions such as major supply constraints, regulatory delays in key markets, or a strategic shift to a longer development cycle for advanced features could still alter the outcome, though such scenarios remain low-probability given historical execution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$172,877Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual smartphone release cadence drives the 98.3% market-implied odds that the iPhone 18 will launch in 2026. The company has maintained a consistent September hardware refresh cycle for its flagship lineup for over a decade, supported by mature supply chains and developer ecosystems that align around predictable timelines. Recent component sourcing patterns and industry reporting reinforce expectations of a standard upgrade featuring incremental processor and camera improvements. While trader consensus reflects this strong precedent, realistic disruptions such as major supply constraints, regulatory delays in key markets, or a strategic shift to a longer development cycle for advanced features could still alter the outcome, though such scenarios remain low-probability given historical execution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$172,877Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established annual smartphone release cadence drives the 98.3% market-implied odds that the iPhone 18 will launch in 2026. The company has maintained a consistent September hardware refresh cycle for its flagship lineup for over a decade, supported by mature supply chains and developer ecosystems that align around predictable timelines. Recent component sourcing patterns and industry reporting reinforce expectations of a standard upgrade featuring incremental processor and camera improvements. While trader consensus reflects this strong precedent, realistic disruptions such as major supply constraints, regulatory delays in key markets, or a strategic shift to a longer development cycle for advanced features could still alter the outcome, though such scenarios remain low-probability given historical execution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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